2003 Minnesota Twins Baseball Graphs Review

The American League Central was a wild and crazy race. The Twins (that reddish/purplish line with white dots) had an okay April, very good May, and lousy June. Once the All-Star game was over, however, the Twins played very good baseball on a consistent basis, winning the division in the last week or two.

The Twins beat their Pythagorean projection (based on runs scored and allowed) by five games.

The Twins had good pitching and a good DER, but their fielding was below-average. Based on where balls were hit, the Twins' expected DER should have been pretty good, but it wasn't quite. This is based on some recent work by David Pinto at Baseball Musings.

The Humpdome is a funny place. It's a slightly good environment for batters most of the time (that is, it's a little easier to score runs there) mostly because it's not a good place for fielders. DER tends to be higher for the Twins due to this, and this chart attempts to correct for that home park bias. I'm still working on this, though. And conclusions are elusive.

Anyway, only Johan Santana, among Twin starters, had a good DER behind him (.725). Of course, Santana's FIP was outstanding (0.15) and the two stats combined made him the best pitcher on the staff.

The Twins had a lot of highs and lows in 2003. By my measure, they had the third-most variable results (the Rangers and Blue Jays were most variable) -- that is, measuring variance against average games won per ten played. Anyway, they were up and down a lot.

Bad pitching and fielding were the primary reasons for that June swoon. Although their June offensive stats looked good, the hitters had an outstanding first half of June and a poor second half, making the overall results look okay.

After the All-Star break, the offense very consistently stayed above average and the real hot streaks came about when the pitching and fielding were on. A favorable schedule was also a key factor in their great finish.

Minnesota Twins' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS 	
--------	-----	----	----	----	-----	-----	---	
A Pierzynski    MIN     C       14.74   6.84    0.00    21.58   22	
C Koskie        MIN     3B      15.83   5.28    0.00    21.11   21	
D Mientkiewicz  MIN     1B      17.15   2.43    0.00    19.58   20	
T Hunter        MIN     OF      10.28   6.14    0.00    16.42   16	
J Santana       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    16.07   16.07   16	
E Guardado      MIN     P       0.00    0.00    14.58   14.58   15	
J Jones         MIN     OF      11.93   2.15    0.00    14.08   14	
C Guzman        MIN     SS      6.28    7.05    0.00    13.32   13	
L Hawkins       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    13.24   13.24   13	
B Radke         MIN     P       0.00    0.00    12.50   12.50   12	
M LeCroy        MIN     DH      11.18   0.50    0.00    11.68   12	
K Lohse         MIN     P       0.00    0.00    11.35   11.35   11	
K Rogers        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    10.74   10.74   11	
S Stewart       MIN     OF      7.31    1.64    0.00    8.94    9	
B Kielty        MIN     OF      7.29    0.69    0.00    7.98    8	
J Rincon        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    6.72    6.72    7	
L Rivas         MIN     2B      2.48    4.09    0.00    6.57    6	
D Mohr          MIN     OF      3.62    2.41    0.00    6.03    6	
R Reed          MIN     P       0.00    0.00    4.98    4.98    5	
M Ryan          MIN     OF      3.72    0.56    0.00    4.28    4	
D Hocking       MIN     2B      1.39    2.75    0.00    4.14    4	
L Ford          MIN     OF      3.80    0.27    0.00    4.06    4	
J Romero        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    2.79    2.79    3	
C Gomez         MIN     2B      0.38    1.95    0.00    2.33    2	
J Mays          MIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.90    1.90    2	
E Milton        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.85    1.85    2	
G Balfour       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    1.80    1.80    2	
T Sears         MIN     1B      1.52    0.20    0.00    1.72    2	
M Restovich     MIN     OF      1.28    0.35    0.00    1.64    2	
J Morneau       MIN     DH      1.20    0.06    0.00    1.26    1	
M Fetters       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.96    0.96    1	
T Prince        MIN     C       0.55    0.37    0.00    0.92    1	
M Cuddyer       MIN     OF      0.32    0.53    0.00    0.85    1	
C Pulido        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.77    0.77    1	
T Fiore         MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.75    0.75    1	
J Orosco        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.24    0.24    0	
A Prieto        MIN     2B      0.00    0.12    0.00    0.12    0	
J Baldwin       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.12    0.12    0	
R Bowen         MIN     C       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
A Johnson       MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
M Nakamura      MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
B Thomas        MIN     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Twins' offense was powered by five very good hitters in Jones, Hunter, Koskie and those two guys with hard-to-spell names. Compared to position, however, Koskie and Pierzynski and Mientkiewicz were the top offensive contributors, and they were ranked third and second and third at their positions in Win Shares, respectively.

One of the best midseason pickups was Shannon Stewart, who contributed nine Win Shares to the Twins' cause and made the lineup that much deeper. Moving Johan Santana to the rotation was perhaps the most critical decision they made all year. The bullpen certainly didn't need him. It was one of the best in the league with Guardado, Hawkins and crew.