2003 Philadelphia Phillies Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the Philadelphia Phillies. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.



NL East Standings The National League East Race

The Phillies were an elite team in 2003, but they came away with nothing to show for it. See those two lines imposed on each other for most of August and September? For over a month the Phillies and Marlins were lockstep in a battle for second place (and eventually, the wild card). But the Phils lost seven of their last eight games -- including three critical head-to-head games with the Marlins -- to give it away.

The Phillies were the second unluckiest team in the league (behind Houston), finishing five games below their projected won/loss record. This is because they tended to score their runs in bunches; they had one 18-run game and two 16-run games. As we'll see below, they also had another statistical quirk go against them.





Comments How to Read this Graph

Roll your mouse over the graph, and you'll see that at the halfway point of the year, the Phillies were the only NL team above the .600 isotope. Unfortuately, their negative Pythagorean variance (and the Braves' positive one) kept them in second place.

Move your mouse away, and the Phillies move way down and a bit to the right, significantly below Atlanta and .600. The downward fall is the result of a really poor second half by the defense (pitching and fielding), after a very good first half.

The offense actually was a bit better in the second half, and the Phillies arguably had the third-best offense in the league, behind the Braves and Cards. In particular, their OBP was excellent (fourth in the league, unadjusted for ballpark) but their ISO was only average.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).


Pitching and Fielding

Fielding Independent Pitching is based on the following formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Defense Efficiency Ratio is (Non-catcher putouts/Batted Balls in Play), adjusted for ballpark. Circle sizes in this graph are proportional to the percent of fieldable balls successfully converted into outs by the fielders.
The Phillies' Pitching and Fielding

The Phillies were the best fielding team in the league. Their infield was very good (particularly the corners); the Phillies staff had groundball tendencies. Byrd and Abreu both rated high in outfield zone rating.

However, the team DER was relatively low. We've already mentioned that the Phils gave up a lot more runs in the second half than the first. Well, take a look at this midseason chart. Here, you can see that the Phils had an excellent DER, and their FIP was only slightly lower.

How to Read this Graph


Philadelphia Phillies Ten Game Averages
April May June July Aug Sept
OBP .346 .329 .336 .357 .338 .347
SLG .404 .398 .416 .435 .426 .440
FIP 0.67 0.90 0.93 0.75 1.25 1.03
DER .729 .723 .751 .719 .720 .701
The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.
The Phillies Day-by-Day

Here's a closer look at FIP and DER by month. FIP was up in August, but in line the rest of the year. It's that DER line -- compare any of the first three months to the last three months. DER did it to the Phillies.

The offense was much improved in the second half, both OBP and SLG. However, as mentioned before, they tended to bunch their runs in games -- witness those April and September spikes.



Philadelphia Phillies' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS	
--------	----	----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	
J Thome         PHI     1B      27.63   2.37    0.00    30.00   30	
B Abreu         PHI     OF      25.33   2.85    0.00    28.18   28	
J Rollins       PHI     SS      10.66   7.86    0.00    18.52   19	
P Polanco       PHI     2B      12.87   5.60    0.00    18.47   18	
M Lieberthal    PHI     C       14.73   1.17    0.00    15.90   16	
M Byrd          PHI     OF      12.16   3.68    0.00    15.83   16	
R Cormier       PHI     P       0.27    0.00    13.41   13.68   14	
V Padilla       PHI     P       0.00    0.00    12.69   12.69   13	
R Wolf          PHI     P       0.18    0.00    11.72   11.90   12	
K Millwood      PHI     P       0.00    0.00    11.29   11.29   11	
P Burrell       PHI     OF      6.75    2.22    0.00    8.97    9	
B Myers         PHI     P       0.00    0.00    8.54    8.54    9	
R Ledee         PHI     OF      6.08    1.13    0.00    7.21    7	
T Adams         PHI     P       0.00    0.00    6.73    6.73    7	
T Wendell       PHI     P       0.00    0.00    5.62    5.62    6	
T Pratt         PHI     C       5.04    0.43    0.00    5.47    5	
T Perez         PHI     3B      2.80    2.64    0.00    5.43    5	
C Utley         PHI     2B      3.31    1.71    0.00    5.02    5	
D Bell          PHI     3B      1.71    3.12    0.00    4.84    5	
C Silva         PHI     P       0.07    0.00    4.51    4.58    5	
J Michaels      PHI     OF      4.08    0.42    0.00    4.50    5	
D Plesac        PHI     P       0.00    0.00    4.35    4.35    4	
A Telemaco      PHI     P       0.32    0.00    2.13    2.45    2	
T Houston       PHI     3B      1.48    0.47    0.00    1.95    2	
B Duckworth     PHI     P       0.00    0.00    1.86    1.86    2	
N Punto         PHI     2B      0.25    1.09    0.00    1.34    1	
E Junge         PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.51    0.51    1	
K Stinnett      PHI     C       0.50    0.01    0.00    0.50    1	
J Mesa          PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.48    0.48    0	
R Madson        PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.33    0.33    0	
J Hancock       PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.24    0.24    0	
G Geary         PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.24    0.24    0	
J Roa           PHI     P       0.22    0.00    0.00    0.22    0	
M Williams      PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.14    0.14    0	
T Chapman       PHI     3B      0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
V De Los Santos PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
A Machado       PHI     -       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
H Mercado       PHI     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Phillies' Individual Players

Jim Thome earned that big contract, at least in 2003, and Bobby Abreu had another great year. Philadelphia also had a good contingent of next-level everyday players. On the other hand, David Bell was a disappointment after signing a big contract in the offseason.

The Phillies' bullpen received a lot of notoriety, but their Prospectus ranking wasn't bad. Cormier was outstanding, and Plesac and Adams both had good years. The Phillies also had a nice stable of starters. Kevin Millwood was a disappointment to some, but his FIP numbers were good. DER was friendly to Wolf, and unfriendly to Myers.

You can view all National League Win Shares data via the following links:
All Players, Top to Bottom
Players Ranked by Position
Players Fielding WS by Position