2003 Florida Marlins Graphs Review

Who'd have guessed? At the beginning of June, the Marlins (that solid blue line) were tied with the Mets for worst record in the division. They really bottomed out in late May, and started to really turn it around in mid-June. From that point on they played outstanding ball and qualified for the Wild Card in the last week of the season.

After June 18th, they were 57-33, and they tied the Giants for best second-half record in the league. Luck helped: they were six games over the project runs scored/allowed record and they were 19-10 in one-run games during that time. But there was a lot more to this story.

The Marlins had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, though their DER left something to be desired. Their FIP qualified their staff as one of the top four in the league. And their fielding range (indicated by the size of the circle) was somewhat above-average, which speaks to some batted balls perhaps not falling the Marlins' way.

The Marlins' staff was a flyball staff which, in theory, should increase DER (groundball pitchers tend to give up more hits, albeit singles, than flyball pitchers). So the disconnect between their DER and team fielding may be due to relatively poor outfield defense. They did lead the league in double plays turned (as a proportion of potential double plays). This, too, is an indication of a strong infield.

The pitcher most hurt by DER was actually Josh Beckett, whose batted balls yielded a .681 DER. His FIP was an excellent -0.13 FIP.

You can see that the Marlins spent a goodly portion of the first two months under the .500 line. And they spent most of the year afterwards above it. The offense was fairly consistent; no real bad spots and one very good run in late June, capped by a 20-1 victory over the Braves on July 1st. Their only real slump after that was at the end of August, against the Rockies, Pirates and Giants.

The Marlins had two nine-out-of-ten game streaks during the year, and both times the winning was triggered by some great pitching.

Florida Marlins' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS	
--------	----	----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	
D Lee           FLA     1B      21.72   3.69    0.00    25.41   25	
I Rodriguez     FLA     C       19.21   4.24    0.00    23.45   23	
M Lowell        FLA     3B      18.89   4.15    0.00    23.04   23	
L Castillo      FLA     2B      15.25   7.02    0.00    22.26   22	
A Gonzalez      FLA     SS      10.73   9.29    0.00    20.02   20	
J Pierre        FLA     OF      15.52   4.14    0.00    19.66   20	
J Encarnacion   FLA     OF      12.28   2.92    0.00    15.19   15	
D Willis        FLA     P       0.03    0.00    13.96   14.00   14	
M Cabrera       FLA     OF      10.38   1.75    0.00    12.13   12	
B Looper        FLA     P       0.30    0.00    11.43   11.73   12	
J Beckett       FLA     P       0.00    0.00    11.37   11.37   11	
M Redman        FLA     P       0.00    0.00    11.15   11.15   11	
B Penny         FLA     P       0.00    0.00    9.55    9.55    10	
C Pavano        FLA     P       0.00    0.00    8.85    8.85    9	
U Urbina        FLA     P       0.00    0.00    8.76    8.76    9	
T Hollandsworth FLA     OF      4.17    1.01    0.00    5.19    5	
C Fox           FLA     P       0.00    0.00    3.58    3.58    4	
B Banks         FLA     OF      2.79    0.50    0.00    3.29    3	
M Tejera        FLA     P       0.00    0.00    3.12    3.12    3	
R Helling       FLA     P       0.30    0.00    2.68    2.98    3	
T Phelps        FLA     P       0.00    0.00    2.89    2.89    3	
T Spooneybarger FLA     P       0.00    0.00    2.50    2.50    3	
J Conine        FLA     OF      1.70    0.46    0.00    2.16    2	
N Bump          FLA     P       0.00    0.00    1.98    1.98    2	
R Castro        FLA     C       1.56    0.22    0.00    1.78    2	
A Levrault      FLA     P       0.00    0.00    1.72    1.72    2	
M Redmond       FLA     C       0.47    0.48    0.00    0.95    1	
T Borland       FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.93    0.93    1	
J Alvarez       FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.89    0.89    1	
M Mordecai      FLA     SS      0.00    0.76    0.00    0.76    1	
A Fox           FLA     2B      0.06    0.63    0.00    0.69    1	
L Harris        FLA     3B      0.35    0.05    0.00    0.40    0	
A Burnett       FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.36    0.36    0	
C Allen         FLA     OF      0.00    0.18    0.00    0.18    0	
G Williams      FLA     OF      0.00    0.09    0.00    0.09    0	
A Almanza       FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
B Neal          FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
V Nunez         FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
K Olsen         FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Wayne         FLA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Marlins' infield, from catcher to third base, was probably the best in the league. None of their regular infielders ranked lower than fourth in Win Shares at his position. They were also the top five Marlins on the list.

It's curious that Florida's top seven Win Share leaders were everyday players. This is partly due to their steady offense, and it's also a function of innings pitched. Rookie sensation Dontrelle Willis, who led the team in pitching Win Shares, didn't make his pro debut until May. Josh Beckett missed most of May and June, and Mark Redman was also out in May. The Marlins' second half success was really the result of having healthy pitching available.

Finally, the Marlins made some astute pickups during the season, including UUU (nine Win Shares in half a year) and Jeff Conine (two WS in a very short time). Miguel Cabrera had a nice rookie debut. Finally, you'll notice that the Marlins were not very deep. Most of their Win Shares were concentrated among a handful of regular players.