2003 Seattle Mariners Baseball Graphs Review

For the first three months of the year, the Mariners were the best team in baseball. For the last three months, they were a .500 team. Arguably, they were the best team in either league over the full season, but they did not make it to the playoffs.

Pythagoras is partly to blame, of course. The Mariners finished 5 games under their projected won/loss record, based on run differential. Over the first half of the year, they were about even with their projected record. Over the season's second half they were 6-11 in one-run games.

Seattle was all about great team fielding. Seattle is a good fielder's park, but these DER stats are adjusted for ballparks (note: FIP isn't). They were first in DER and first in Zone Rating and first in Fielding Percentage yada yada yada.

Mike Cameron was exceptional in center field, but Winn and Suzuki were very good, too. Those three outfielders ranked among the top eight in the league in fielding Win Shares. Boone and Olerud rated highly, as well.

Ryan Franklin was a big beneficiary of that defense. His FIP was 2.01, but his DER was .754, resulting in an ERA of 3.57.

The Mariners' DER stayed relatively strong throughout most of the year (see the chart). If a finger is to be pointed for their second-half decline, it would have to be the slugging percentage. The Mariners' leading slugger in the second half was Randy Winn (.497). In fact, Lou Pinella for Randy Winn looks like a pretty even trade.

Seattle's biggest slump of the year -- the point at which they lost first place and a lot of momentum -- was that slump in late August against Toronto, Boston and Tampa Bay. They actually beat Oakland 5 of 6 games in September, but couldn't beat the teams they should have beaten.

Seattle Mariners' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS 	
--------	-----	----	----	----	-----	-----	---	
B Boone         SEA     2B      21.71   8.00    0.00    29.71   30	
I Suzuki        SEA     OF      18.89   4.16    0.00    23.05   23	
R Winn          SEA     OF      17.10   3.99    0.00    21.09   21	
M Cameron       SEA     OF      12.98   7.73    0.00    20.71   21	
E Martinez      SEA     DH      19.96   0.00    0.00    19.96   20	
J Moyer         SEA     P       0.00    0.00    17.59   17.59   18	
J Olerud        SEA     1B      12.43   2.60    0.00    15.04   15	
S Hasegawa      SEA     P       0.00    0.00    13.39   13.39   13	
J Pineiro       SEA     P       0.00    0.00    13.33   13.33   13	
R Franklin      SEA     P       0.00    0.00    12.82   12.82   13	
C Guillen       SEA     SS      7.35    4.78    0.00    12.14   12	
G Meche         SEA     P       0.00    0.00    8.35    8.35    8	
F Garcia        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    7.82    7.82    8	
M McLemore      SEA     SS      4.10    3.50    0.00    7.61    8	
B Davis         SEA     C       3.37    4.02    0.00    7.40    7	
D Wilson        SEA     C       1.55    5.73    0.00    7.28    7	
R Soriano       SEA     P       0.00    0.00    7.25    7.25    7	
J Mateo         SEA     P       0.00    0.00    6.93    6.93    7	
J Nelson        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    4.48    4.48    4	
R Sanchez       SEA     SS      1.63    2.64    0.00    4.27    4	
A Rhodes        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    4.25    4.25    4	
K Sasaki        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    3.58    3.58    4	
J Cirillo       SEA     3B      0.72    2.10    0.00    2.82    3	
W Bloomquist    SEA     3B      0.84    1.93    0.00    2.77    3	
J Mabry         SEA     OF      1.31    0.34    0.00    1.65    2	
A Benitez       SEA     P       0.00    0.00    1.04    1.04    1	
B Sweeney       SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.92    0.92    1	
G Colbrunn      SEA     1B      0.56    0.17    0.00    0.73    1	
P Borders       SEA     C       0.00    0.53    0.00    0.53    1	
L Ugueto        SEA     2B      0.19    0.07    0.00    0.27    0	
A Looper        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.14    0.14    0	
J Putz          SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.10    0.10    0	
G Carrara       SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
C Meyers        SEA     OF      0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Strong        SEA     OF      0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
A Taylor        SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
M White         SEA     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

Bret Boone had an MVP-caliber year, and he should get more press than he has. The Mariners' outfield were three of the top ten outfielders in the league, according to Win Shares. Olerud was fifth at first. Jamie Moyer had a very fine year on the mound. Rafael Soriano had a great rookie year, and seems to be a bit underrated by Win Shares.

I'd comment on the Mariners' midyear acquisitions, but they only made one: Benitez contriubuted one Win Share, while Nelson gave two to the Yankees.