2003 Montreal Expos Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the Montreal Expos. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.



NL East Standings The National League East Race

On August 28th, the Expos (the neglected stepchild of organized baseball) had just swept a four-game series from the Phillies and was tied for second place in the East Division, with a legitimate shot at the Wild Card. Unfortunately, they immediately lost nine of their next ten games -- primarily against the Marlin and Phillies -- and didn't have time to recover.

The Expos got off to a great start, and were shadowing the Braves near the end of May. But Vladimir Guerero's back acted up (he was out virtually all of June and July) and the Expos didn't get back into the race until late August.





Comments How to Read this Graph

Montreal was just below the .500 line for the year, with a very good record at not allowing runs. If you roll your mouse over the graph, you'll see the Expos' midyear position: Their runs allowed record was relatively the same, but their average runs scored was better in the first half.

Given that the Expos played a lot of their games in San Juan, it's hard to figure out what the park factor should be. I've just used the historic Olympic Stadium park factors, which means this graph probably overstates the offense and understates the defense.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).


Pitching and Fielding

Fielding Independent Pitching is based on the following formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Defense Efficiency Ratio is (Non-catcher putouts/Batted Balls in Play), adjusted for ballpark. Circle sizes in this graph are proportional to the percent of fieldable balls successfully converted into outs by the fielders.
The Expos' Pitching and Fielding

The Expos were almost exactly average in FIP and DER. Again, given the parks they called home, this probably somewhat understates their performance. Their fielders were a bit above average, as indicated by the circle size.

Among individual fielders, Brian Schneider had an outstanding year behind the plate (first in Catcher fielding Win Shares). And David Pinto of Baseball Musings analyzed team zone ratings and concluded that Montreal shortstops were the best in the majors.

How to Read this Graph


Montreal Expos Ten Game Averages
April May June July Aug Sept
OBP .322 .341 .325 .314 .332 .316
SLG .403 .396 .396 .409 .402 .390
FIP 1.04 1.24 2.08 1.62 0.59 0.45
DER .740 .724 .720 .701 .722 .705
The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.
The Expos Day-by-Day

This graph pretty well tells the drama of the Expos' season. Great start followed by two months of wobbly performance, with a return to form in August followed by one big losing trough in early September. The bounceback in late September just wasn't enough.

Vlad was out in June and July, but the Expos' offense wasn't really that bad in those two months. Really, the June/July slump can be pinned on the pitching; those were the two highest FIP months of the year. In August and September, the pitching was great.



Montreal Expos' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS	
--------	----	----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	
L Hernandez     MON     P       0.00    0.00    21.70   21.70   22	
J Vazquez       MON     P       0.00    0.00    20.54   20.54   21	
O Cabrera       MON     SS      13.34   6.70    0.00    20.04   20	
J Vidro         MON     2B      14.54   4.02    0.00    18.56   19	
B Wilkerson     MON     OF      14.74   3.69    0.00    18.43   18	
V Guerrero      MON     OF      15.17   2.81    0.00    17.99   18	
B Schneider     MON     C       2.75    10.60   0.00    13.35   13	
T Ohka          MON     P       0.00    0.00    11.93   11.93   12	
L Ayala         MON     P       0.00    0.00    11.49   11.49   11	
W Cordero       MON     1B      10.03   1.36    0.00    11.39   11	
E Chavez        MON     OF      5.20    4.65    0.00    9.84    10	
R Biddle        MON     P       0.00    0.00    7.94    7.94    8	
Z Day           MON     P       0.00    0.00    7.84    7.84    8	
M Barrett       MON     C       1.80    4.85    0.00    6.65    7	
C Vargas        MON     P       0.00    0.00    5.71    5.71    6	
R Calloway      MON     OF      3.14    2.12    0.00    5.26    5	
J Eischen       MON     P       0.00    0.00    5.00    5.00    5	
T Tucker        MON     P       0.15    0.00    3.60    3.74    4	
T Armas         MON     P       0.06    0.00    3.63    3.69    4	
S Stewart       MON     P       0.00    0.00    3.57    3.57    4	
T Zeile         MON     3B      2.02    1.02    0.00    3.04    3	
J Vitiello      MON     OF      2.44    0.27    0.00    2.71    3	
J Carroll       MON     3B      0.00    2.64    0.00    2.64    3	
J Manon         MON     P       0.00    0.00    2.35    2.35    2	
H Mateo         MON     2B      1.19    1.15    0.00    2.34    2	
C Cordero       MON     P       0.00    0.00    2.28    2.28    2	
J Macias        MON     OF      0.45    1.61    0.00    2.06    2	
D Smith         MON     P       0.00    0.00    1.50    1.50    1	
F Tatis         MON     3B      0.00    1.40    0.00    1.40    1	
J Liefer        MON     1B      1.00    0.16    0.00    1.16    1	
J Mercedes      MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.91    0.91    1	
R Corcoran      MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.89    0.89    1	
E Guzman        MON     3B      0.00    0.64    0.00    0.64    1	
E Knott         MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.40    0.40    0	
H Almonte       MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.01    0.01    0	
M Cepicky       MON     OF      0.00    0.01    0.00    0.01    0	
V Darensbourg   MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
S Downs         MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
T Drew          MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
A Ferrari       MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
B Hebson        MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
S Kim           MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
B Reames        MON     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Expos' Individual Players

So it's fitting that the two top Win Share leaders were Javier Vazquez and Livan Hernandez. They both had outstanding seasons. Among other pitchers, Tomo Ohka had a good year (and he was unfairly hurt by a low DER of .687) and Luis Ayala was a great Rule V pickup.

The Expos may have the league's best keystone combination this side of Atlanta.

You can view all National League Win Shares data via the following links:
All Players, Top to Bottom
Players Ranked by Position
Players Fielding WS by Position