2003 St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the St. Louis Cardinals. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.



NL Central Standings The National League Central Race

The Cardinals gave it a good run most of the summer. But when the Astros and Cubs kicked it into overdrive in September, the Cards couldn't keep up. In early September, they couldn't beat the Cubs or Astros head-to-head.

St. Louis was a staggering 14-25 in one-run games, and they came in about four games under their projected won/loss record.





Comments How to Read this Graph

I've reworked the park factors in this graph, and the newer graph ranks the Cardinals' offense behind Atlanta's. But that's okay: Atlanta's offense was awesome this year, and the Cardinals weren't far behind. If you hold your mouse over the graph, you'll see that the Cards hit outrageously well the first half of the year.

On an unadjusted basis, the St. Louis led the league in OBP, and were second in SLG. The Cardinals' problem was well-known: pitching

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).


Pitching and Fielding

Fielding Independent Pitching is based on the following formula: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. Defense Efficiency Ratio is (Non-catcher putouts/Batted Balls in Play), adjusted for ballpark. Circle sizes in this graph are proportional to the percent of fieldable balls successfully converted into outs by the fielders.
The Cardinals' Pitching and Fielding

The team fielding, as indicated by the size of the circle, was among the best in the league. Only the Phillies were better, according to David Pinto's analysis. Some of the standout fielders on the team included Jim Edmons, Scott Rolen and Mike Matheny.

The team DER, adjusted for ballpark, was about average. This essentially means that the Cardinals' pitchers (or luck, depending on what you believe) were the main contributors to balls falling in for hits. And the Cardinals team FIP was among the worst in the league.

The Cardinals had two premier starters: Woody Williams (0.54 FIP) and Matt Morris (0.80). And that's it. According to Baseball Prospectus, their bullpen was second-worst in the majors, with only Jason Isringhausen available and pitching well for part of the year (-0.05 FIP).

How to Read this Graph


St. Louis Cardinals Ten Game Averages
April May June July Aug Sept
OBP .367 .329 .376 .339 .337 .347
SLG .479 .442 .512 .414 .439 .425
FIP 1.70 1.29 1.89 1.25 2.08 1.17
DER .748 .729 .702 .714 .712 .715
The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.
The Cardinals Day-by-Day

The Cardinals were the most consistent team in the league. Out of all ten-game streaks, they won as many as eight games once and never lost less than three games out of ten. That is a very consistent record.

As you can see on the graph, the offense and defense tended to track together. The runs scored record was only significantly better than runs allowed at two points: early May and the end of the year. When the pitching got worse, as it did in June, the bats got better. When the bats turned cold, the pitching got better.

The Cards' bats sizzled in the month of June. Edmonds had a very good June, and it was particularly the month of Bo Hart.



St. Louis Cardinals' Win Shares

Player          Team    Pos     Hit     Field   Pitch   Sum     WS	
--------	----	----	-----	-----	-----	-----	---	
A Pujols        STL     OF      38.92   2.21    0.00    41.13   41	
S Rolen         STL     3B      21.22   4.19    0.00    25.41   25	
E Renteria      STL     SS      20.24   5.00    0.00    25.23   25	
J Edmonds       STL     OF      18.64   3.72    0.00    22.36   22	
W Williams      STL     P       0.18    0.00    13.04   13.21   13	
J Drew          STL     OF      11.67   1.34    0.00    13.01   13	
M Matheny       STL     C       6.25    6.76    0.00    13.01   13	
T Martinez      STL     1B      9.43    1.79    0.00    11.22   11	
M Morris        STL     P       0.00    0.00    9.68    9.68    10	
J Isringhausen  STL     P       0.28    0.00    7.08    7.36    7	
E Perez         STL     OF      6.47    0.77    0.00    7.24    7	
B Hart          STL     2B      5.34    1.75    0.00    7.09    7	
C Eldred        STL     P       0.00    0.00    5.66    5.66    6	
O Palmeiro      STL     OF      4.14    1.43    0.00    5.57    6	
B Tomko         STL     P       0.61    0.00    4.87    5.48    6	
G Stephenson    STL     P       0.00    0.00    5.43    5.43    5	
S Kline         STL     P       0.25    0.00    4.96    5.21    5	
F Vina          STL     2B      3.09    1.40    0.00    4.49    5	
K Calero        STL     P       0.22    0.00    3.12    3.34    3	
M Cairo         STL     2B      2.00    1.09    0.00    3.09    3	
E Marrero       STL     OF      2.30    0.66    0.00    2.96    3	
S Taguchi       STL     OF      2.21    0.30    0.00    2.50    3	
K Robinson      STL     OF      1.79    0.71    0.00    2.49    3	
C Widger        STL     C       0.79    1.66    0.00    2.45    2	
S Hitchcock     STL     P       0.00    0.00    2.31    2.31    2	
J Simontacchi   STL     P       0.00    0.00    1.82    1.82    2	
M DeJean        STL     P       0.00    0.00    1.13    1.13    1	
D Haren         STL     P       0.00    0.00    1.03    1.03    1	
K Ohme          STL     P       0.30    0.00    0.67    0.97    1	
E Yan           STL     P       0.30    0.00    0.44    0.74    1	
M Crudale       STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.64    0.64    1	
J Pearce        STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.63    0.63    1	
D Hermanson     STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.50    0.50    1	
W Delgado       STL     2B      0.00    0.40    0.00    0.40    0	
L Painter       STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.22    0.22    0	
P Borbon        STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Fassero       STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Girardi       STL     C       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Journell      STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
G Molina        STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
J Pearson       STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	
R Springer      STL     P       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0	

The Cardinals' Individual Players

Only the greatness of Barry Bonds could potentially eclipse the year that Albert Pujols had. Remember that magnificent MVP year of Robin Yount's in 1982? He had 39 Win Shares. Mike Schmidt's best year: 40. Reggie Jackson and Jimmie Foxx hit 41 once. Frank Robinson had 41 in 1966. Even Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 had 42. Pujols had a year for the greats.

Rolen, Renteria and Edmonds shouldn't be overlooked, however. Renteria, in particular, had an outstanding year and tied with Furcal for most Win Shares among National League shortstops.

You can view all National League Win Shares data via the following links:
All Players, Top to Bottom
Players Ranked by Position
Players Fielding WS by Position