The Baseball Graphs Blog
Monday, July 17, 2006
Second-Half Surges and more Win Stats
JC has an interesting post on his blog, using PrOPS to predict which offenses are most likely to improve, decline or stay the same in the second half. Biggest surges expected from the A’s, Devil Rays, Phillies, Reds and Orioles. Interesting list.
I talk a lot about win-based statistics on this site, so I should point out one in development by Bradford Doolittle. He calls it Wins Added and it appears to be informed by Chris Dial’s work at Baseball Think Factory. Here’s a link to his All-Star break leaderboard and he explains his system in this post. Brad admits that his system is still under development, but the basics seem solid to me.
Saturday, July 15, 2006
My new shirt
There’s a new Yankee weblog focusing on WPA results. It looks like he’ll have some interesting analyses and presentations of WPA stats, so be sure to check it out.
I don’t know if you read the First Inning site, but I think it is the most interesting minor league statistics site, by far. It features detailed stats for all minor league players, including splits and projections, as well as organizational rankings and much more. To top it off, they’ve added batted ball charts for every minor league batter, showing where each batter’s batted balls have fallen and how they’ve fared. Here’s one for Cincinnati prospect Jay Bruce:
Last tip: there’s a site that will “calculate” your name if you were to play on the Brazilian soccer team. Mine is Studemisco. What’s yours?
Monday, July 10, 2006
Tracking Home Runs
If you watch tonight’s Home Run Derby, you might want to follow along at Hit Tracker. At Hit Tracker, they plan to use their patented technology to measure the distance of every home run. True, ESPN will reportedly use “laser technology” to do the same thing, but Hit Tracker also calculates the speed of the home run off the bat, and measures home runs based on where it would have landed if it hadn’t hit the stands.
Actually, it may be most interesting to see where ESPN and Hit Tracker disagree, and why. The science of home run distancing really isn’t much of a science at all. At least, not yet.
Meanwhile, back in Win Probability Added land, Alan Schwarz wrote a weekend article for the New York Times (subscription required) using WPA to review some of the All-Star selections. It’s a nice effort, though I think Alan has it wrong when he says that “Good players on excellent teams tend to have higher W.P.A.‘s because they usually participate in more victories.” I’m pretty sure that good players on excellent teams are handicapped because they have less chance to impact a game if their team is ahead most of the time.
Players who might do particularly well in WPA are those who do well in high-leverage situations. In other words, good players who play in a lot of close games will tend to have higher WPA’s, just as top relievers in high-leverage situations will have higher WPA’s than top relievers in low-leverage situations.