The Baseball Graphs Blog

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

The 1908 National League

1908!  The year remains a vivid memory.  Thrilling pennant races in both leagues, great seasons, Merkle’s Boner.  Truly, 1908 was sublime.  It’s hard to avoid exclamation marks when writing of it.

Historic in so many, ways, the National League in 1908 was the lowest scoring year of any in modern baseball history, with teams scoring only 3.33 runs per game.  Perhaps not coincidentally, Honus Wagner had the greatest Win Share season of any player after 1900, racking up 59 Win Shares!  (see what I mean about the exclamation marks?)  As for the pennant race itself, the Giants, led by the great Christy Mathewson (37-11, 1.43, 39 Win Shares) ran off an 11-game winning streak in early September and had a 4.5 game lead on September 18th.  However, they lost the next four games and were virtually tied with the Cubs (and the Pirates close behind) on September 23rd.

The Cubs and Giants played a beaut of a game on the 23rd, and the score was tied in the ninth inning.  With two out, Moose McCormick was on third and Fred Merkle was on first.  Al Bridwell was at bat.  Hank O’Day was umpiring and Johnny Evers was playing second for the Cubs.

Evers and O’Day had been in this position before.  14 days earlier, the Pirates had the bases loaded against the Cubs in the bottom of the tenth, with O’Day umpiring.  Owen Wilson singled, plating the winning run, but the runner on first (Warren Gill) didn’t touch second.  Evers called for the ball from the outfield and tagged second, which should have counted as the third out (negating the run) but O’Day had already left the field.  The Cubs protested, but the league maintained that since O’Day hadn’t seen Evers touch second, the result stood.

So when Bridwell singled up the middle on the 23rd and Merkle didn’t touch second base, O’Day was paying attention.  So was Evers.  However, the Chicago fans poured onto the field and the Giants’ first base coach that day (Iron Man McGinnity) reportedly got the ball first and threw it far into the crowd.  Somehow, the Cubs came up with the ball and tagged second.  O’Day ruled Merkle out but the game couldn’t be finished due to the crowd.  It was declared a tie, to be replayed in case the season ended in a tie.

Being 1908, that is exactly what happened.  The Pirates finished their season with a record of 98-56, but the Cubs and Giants were each 98-55.  Whoever won the replayed game would be the champion of the league.  A record 35,000 fans showed up in the Polo Grounds that day, but mighty Matty was not up to the task, and he was defeated by the Cubs’ “Giant killer” Jack Pfiester, 4-2.  (Pfiester, who had given up Bridwell’s single, went 15-5 against the Giants from 1903 to 1911).

Thus was born “Merkle’s Boner,” which will stand forever in baseball lore.  However, the true story of 1908 was the thrilling pennant race and the superb performances of Wagner and Mathewson.  The Cubs went on to beat the Tigers in an anticlimatic World Series, four games to one.


Posted by Studes on 01/31 at 09:47 AM
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Monday, January 30, 2006

Injured Pitchers

I was asked to put together some stat tables for pitchers who suffered, and subsequently recovered, from injuries. Here a "mini-survey" of some of the names we thought of.

Randy Johnson missed time in 2003 due to knee and back injuries, if memory serves correctly.


Johnson, Randy

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 1035 0.01 0.36 -0.08 30% 20% 47% 12% 32% 8% 2.3 43.2 -22.4 -4.5 -69.9 -50.6 -1.9
2003 489 0.11 0.38 -0.10 29% 29% 40% 15% 26% 7% 10.2 34.6 -13.2 -2.0 -25.0 3.3 0.3
2004 964 0.01 0.27 -0.07 33% 19% 43% 8% 30% 6% 1.8 31.5 -18.6 -5.3 -66.5 -57.9 -2.3
2005 920 0.11 0.30 -0.07 34% 17% 45% 14% 23% 6% 23.7 32.4 -20.1 -6.0 -42.2 -12.9 -0.5
Avg. 852 0.05 0.32 -0.08 32% 20% 44% 12% 28% 7% 8.5 33.6 -17.9 -4.3 -54.4 -35.1 -1.6
vs. MLB 0.02 -0.03 0.02 1% -1% 1% 1% 12% -3% 2.0 -11.6 8.9 2.0 -38.7

Kevin Millwood missed time in 2004, but I forget why.

Millwood, Kevin

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 895 -0.07 0.30 -0.12 29% 24% 44% 7% 20% 8% -13.8 44.6 -32.7 -4.0 -28.6 -35.6 -1.5
2003 930 -0.05 0.38 -0.10 31% 24% 39% 7% 18% 8% -10.2 60.0 -26.6 -9.5 -26.5 -16.1 -0.7
2004 628 0.05 0.38 -0.08 34% 22% 41% 7% 20% 9% 6.9 34.5 -13.5 -2.7 -18.0 5.0 0.3
2005 799 0.04 0.33 -0.10 29% 21% 46% 11% 18% 7% 6.2 40.0 -26.9 -6.0 -24.8 -13.6 -0.6
Avg. 813 -0.02 0.35 -0.10 31% 23% 43% 8% 19% 8% -2.9 44.5 -24.6 -5.5 -25.0 -15.5 -0.7
vs. MLB -0.05 -0.01 0.00 -1% 2% -1% -3% 2% -2% -9.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 -10.0

Baseball Graphs favorite Mark Prior had Achilles and elbow problems in 2004 (and 2005):

Prior, Mark

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 486 0.03 0.32 -0.04 36% 24% 34% 12% 30% 9% 2.7 22.0 -3.5 -3.5 -28.3 -11.1 -0.9
2003 863 -0.06 0.43 -0.07 31% 22% 41% 8% 28% 7% -9.6 51.6 -14.8 -7.0 -52.1 -31.8 -1.4
2004 510 0.06 0.40 -0.02 37% 19% 36% 9% 27% 10% 6.4 23.9 -2.3 -5.5 -24.3 -4.1 -0.3
2005 701 0.05 0.29 -0.04 37% 22% 37% 13% 27% 9% 8.7 28.0 -6.9 -4.5 -34.7 -11.5 -0.6
Avg. 640 0.01 0.36 -0.05 35% 22% 38% 10% 28% 9% 1.6 30.5 -6.5 -5.0 -36.6 -17.2 -1.0
vs. MLB -0.02 0.01 0.06 4% 1% -6% -1% 11% -1% -3.4 -3.5 13.7 -0.3 -24.8

Jon Lieber missed 2003 due to Tommy John surgery. The "average" in this case refers to the most recent two years.

Lieber, Jon

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 582 -0.03 0.36 -0.08 31% 23% 43% 9% 15% 2% -4.2 37.6 -15.9 -4.3 -21.0 -10.2 -0.7
2003 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 #DIV/0!
2004 749 0.06 0.40 -0.09 31% 18% 48% 9% 14% 3% 11.1 44.1 -27.4 -3.2 -23.1 3.5 0.2
2005 912 0.09 0.27 -0.08 28% 22% 46% 15% 16% 5% 17.6 40.4 -26.6 -7.8 -28.6 -5.8 -0.2
Avg. 831 0.08 0.33 -0.09 30% 20% 47% 12% 15% 4% 14.5 42.5 -26.7 -5.4 -26.9 -0.4 0.0
vs. MLB 0.04 -0.03 0.01 -2% -1% 3% 1% -1% -6% 8.1 -1.5 -0.5 0.7 -11.6

Andy Pettitte's elbow gave him fits in 2004.

Pettitte, Andy

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 570 -0.08 0.34 -0.07 28% 24% 45% 5% 17% 6% -9.7 35.1 -12.9 -3.0 -16.8 -7.2 -0.5
2003 896 0.05 0.36 -0.07 23% 22% 52% 10% 20% 6% 8.0 50.9 -25.2 -5.5 -36.2 -6.9 -0.3
2004 346 0.13 0.31 -0.13 22% 21% 53% 12% 23% 9% 6.7 15.0 -15.9 -2.3 -13.3 -8.9 -1.0
2005 875 0.01 0.30 -0.14 24% 23% 50% 9% 20% 5% 1.4 43.5 -46.0 -4.8 -35.6 -44.3 -1.9
Avg. 672 0.02 0.33 -0.10 24% 23% 50% 9% 20% 6% 2.4 34.7 -24.0 -3.7 -28.1 -18.5 -1.0
vs. MLB -0.01 -0.03 0.00 -7% 2% 6% -2% 3% -3% -2.8 -0.9 -2.9 1.2 -15.7

Casey Fossum had shoulder problems in 2003 and had rotator cuff surgery at the end of the season.

Fossum, Casey

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 461 0.03 0.39 -0.08 32% 24% 41% 10% 22% 7% 2.6 29.5 -10.3 -2.8 -18.5 -0.3 0.0
2003 346 0.03 0.41 -0.10 38% 21% 33% 9% 18% 11% 2.8 21.5 -7.7 -4.8 -6.4 5.3 0.6
2004 652 0.20 0.36 -0.08 33% 21% 41% 19% 18% 11% 29.0 33.3 -14.7 -5.5 -11.0 28.0 1.6
2005 725 0.02 0.33 -0.07 34% 23% 39% 11% 18% 11% 4.2 38.6 -14.1 -5.3 -12.4 11.2 0.6
Avg. 546 0.08 0.37 -0.08 34% 22% 39% 13% 19% 10% 9.6 29.7 -11.4 -4.4 -12.9 9.5 0.7
vs. MLB 0.04 0.01 0.02 3% 1% -5% 2% 2% 1% 5.4 0.8 5.8 -0.4 -2.9

Posted by Studes on 01/30 at 08:19 AM
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Friday, January 27, 2006

Danny Haren

Haren, Dan

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2003 320 0.07 0.24 -0.05 32% 23% 41% 10% 13% 8% 5.2 13.7 -5.2 -1.8 -4.0 7.0 0.8
2004 195 0.07 0.45 -0.15 36% 16% 45% 8% 16% 10% 3.8 9.8 -9.4 -1.0 -3.3 -1.1 -0.2
2005 897 0.03 0.40 -0.13 28% 22% 46% 10% 18% 7% 4.9 57.4 -40.8 -6.5 -28.7 -15.0 -0.6
Avg. 471 0.04 0.37 -0.12 30% 21% 45% 10% 17% 7% 3.8 23.4 -15.6 -2.7 -17.0 -9.3 -0.7
vs. MLB 0.01 0.01 -0.02 -1% 0% 1% -1% 0% -2% 0.1 -1.6 -0.8 0.8 -8.3

Posted by Studes on 01/27 at 01:32 PM
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Cubs’ Pitching Table

Chicago Cubs

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 6236 0.02 0.38 -0.10 32% 22% 42% 11% 21% 11% 25.1 341.0 -165.7 -43.0 -178.8 -40.2 -0.2
2003 6227 0.00 0.36 -0.11 27% 22% 47% 11% 23% 11% 4.4 319.5 -198.0 -37.8 -191.4 -122.7 -0.7
2004 6262 0.05 0.34 -0.09 31% 19% 45% 11% 21% 10% 60.2 274.8 -166.0 -42.9 -195.0 -84.3 -0.5
2005 6185 0.06 0.31 -0.10 30% 21% 46% 13% 20% 10% 79.2 271.5 -183.7 -33.6 -168.5 -54.3 -0.3
Avg. 6228 0.03 0.35 -0.10 30% 21% 45% 12% 21% 10% 40.9 301.5 -178.3 -39.5 -183.5 -76.5 -0.5
Vs. MLB 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 48.1 330.4 -196.2 -46.0 -114.8 10.3 0.1

One reader asked to see other Cub pitchers to compare to Mark Prior's groundball rate. Here's one better: Cub team data for the past four years.

As you can see, the "net run value" of all Cub groundballs the past four years has been about average, while Mark Prior's have been higher than average in each of the past four years. Now, this isn't concrete proof that Prior gives up more "fieldable" groundballs. There may be issues with positioning, specific fielders or things like that. Or, it could just be random. After all, about half of every sample is below average.

But when a certain player has the same outcome in each and every one of four years, you've got to wonder...


Posted by Studes on 01/27 at 09:54 AM
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Saturday, January 21, 2006

Benson for Julio

Benson, Kris

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 575 0.10 0.41 -0.14 31% 24% 40% 14% 14% 9% 13.7 42.3 -24.4 -5.8 -6.8 16.7 1.1
2003 475 0.00 0.38 -0.10 34% 29% 32% 9% 14% 8% -0.6 39.4 -11.3 -4.5 -8.2 13.9 1.1
2004 854 0.01 0.35 -0.08 33% 20% 42% 7% 16% 8% 2.2 43.2 -22.9 -8.0 -16.5 -5.0 -0.2
2005 737 0.04 0.27 -0.10 33% 19% 44% 13% 13% 7% 8.5 30.3 -26.4 -5.3 -11.0 -5.4 -0.3
Avg. 660 0.04 0.34 -0.10 33% 22% 40% 11% 14% 8% 6.1 37.6 -20.9 -5.8 -11.2 3.8 0.2
vs. MLB 0.00 -0.01 0.00 2% 1% -3% 0% -2% -1% 1.0 2.6 -0.1 -0.9 1.0


Julio, Jorge

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 289 -0.10 0.37 -0.06 37% 19% 39% 5% 19% 10% -7.5 14.4 -5.0 -2.3 -6.9 -7.9 -1.0
2003 273 0.10 0.28 -0.11 34% 19% 43% 16% 19% 13% 6.2 9.7 -8.9 -1.8 -3.9 1.0 0.1
2004 306 0.10 0.23 -0.04 39% 15% 41% 15% 23% 14% 7.5 6.5 -3.3 -2.8 -7.2 -0.1 0.0
2005 314 0.05 0.35 -0.03 37% 18% 40% 14% 18% 9% 4.2 14.9 -3.1 -2.5 -8.4 4.9 0.6
Avg. 296 0.04 0.31 -0.06 37% 18% 41% 13% 20% 11% 2.8 11.1 -5.0 -2.3 -6.8 -0.8 -0.1
vs. MLB 0.00 -0.05 0.04 6% -3% -3% 2% 3% 2% 0.6 -4.6 4.3 -0.1 -1.3

Posted by Studes on 01/21 at 05:05 PM
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Friday, January 20, 2006

Zach Duke

Duke, Zachary

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2005 341 -0.08 0.30 -0.15 23% 26% 47% 5% 17% 7% -4.3 20.0 -18.0 -2.3 -9.0 -15.4 -1.7
Avg. 341 -0.08 0.30 -0.15 23% 26% 47% 5% 17% 7% -4.3 20.0 -18.0 -2.3 -9.0 -15.3 -1.7
vs. MLB -0.11 -0.05 -0.05 -8% 6% 3% -6% 0% -2% -6.9 2.0 -7.3 0.3 -2.7


Wells, Kip

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 844 0.09 0.38 -0.13 23% 21% 53% 15% 16% 9% 12.5 48.1 -43.5 -5.0 -14.8 -4.0 -0.2
2003 835 0.03 0.40 -0.12 28% 18% 51% 13% 18% 10% 5.4 41.3 -36.0 -4.5 -16.7 -14.8 -0.7
2004 621 0.07 0.36 -0.11 28% 22% 46% 11% 19% 12% 8.6 34.3 -22.0 -4.0 -11.2 4.9 0.3
2005 828 0.12 0.31 -0.11 31% 22% 45% 13% 16% 13% 21.0 37.8 -27.8 -4.3 -3.7 20.3 0.9
Avg. 782 0.08 0.36 -0.12 27% 20% 49% 13% 17% 11% 11.8 40.4 -31.9 -4.4 -11.9 1.9 0.1
vs. MLB 0.04 0.01 -0.02 -4% 0% 5% 2% 0% 1% 5.7 -1.0 -7.2 1.3 2.5

Posted by Studes on 01/20 at 05:06 PM
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Greg Maddux

Here's Greg Maddux's pitching table. Please note that I've changed the bottom line of the table to "variance against the MLB average" instead of the MLB average itself. This should make comparisons easier. Under "total net runs" all the negative variances are good for the pitcher, positive ones are bad.

Maddux, Greg

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 820 0.03 0.34 -0.13 22% 19% 56% 8% 14% 6% 3.6 41.1 -47.3 -2.8 -18.8 -25.0 -1.2
2003 901 0.08 0.34 -0.13 23% 24% 51% 12% 14% 5% 12.4 57.1 -48.4 -5.5 -22.9 -9.9 -0.4
2004 872 0.10 0.36 -0.12 27% 20% 51% 16% 17% 5% 18.2 47.0 -39.3 -3.3 -30.3 -8.9 -0.4
2005 936 0.13 0.29 -0.11 24% 22% 52% 16% 15% 5% 22.1 45.1 -42.3 -4.5 -25.7 -7.3 -0.3
Avg. 882 0.08 0.33 -0.12 24% 21% 52% 13% 15% 5% 13.8 47.6 -44.2 -4.0 -24.4 -12.9 -0.6
vs. MLB 0.05 -0.03 -0.02 -7% 0% 9% 2% -2% -5% 7.0 0.8 -16.4 2.5 -8.1

Posted by Studes on 01/20 at 11:38 AM
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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Doug Davis

Davis, Doug

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 262 -0.05 0.37 -0.12 32% 24% 40% 6% 11% 10% -3.5 17.7 -9.9 -2.3 -0.3 1.6 0.2
2003 491 0.04 0.31 -0.10 32% 23% 40% 12% 13% 11% 4.2 25.9 -13.8 -4.5 -2.0 9.5 0.7
2004 880 0.00 0.35 -0.10 31% 19% 47% 8% 19% 10% 0.9 39.4 -28.5 -5.3 -21.3 -18.0 -0.8
2005 946 0.11 0.31 -0.11 31% 20% 44% 13% 22% 10% 21.7 39.0 -29.4 -7.3 -30.1 -9.2 -0.4
Avg. 645 0.05 0.33 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 10% 18% 10% 5.6 27.1 -18.3 -4.3 -15.5 -6.5 -0.4
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 5.0 34.2 -20.3 -4.8 -11.9 1.1 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 06:09 PM
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Brandon Webb

Webb, Brandon

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2003 750 0.06 0.32 -0.13 14% 20% 64% 14% 23% 11% 4.1 30.1 -39.5 -1.7 -24.3 -33.4 -1.7
2004 933 0.23 0.30 -0.11 17% 17% 64% 16% 18% 14% 23.7 32.5 -43.3 -2.8 -7.2 -0.1 0.0
2005 943 0.19 0.32 -0.11 15% 19% 65% 17% 18% 6% 19.7 41.7 -48.0 -1.8 -30.8 -23.0 -0.9
Avg. 875 0.17 0.31 -0.11 15% 19% 64% 16% 19% 10% 15.2 34.7 -43.8 -2.2 -21.7 -20.6 -0.9
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 6.8 46.4 -27.6 -6.5 -16.1 1.5 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 01:50 PM
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Baseball Visualization Tool

This is a cool baseball decision demo by some folks who want to sell you their management decision software.  It’s way cool, but can you imagine the grief a manager would receive if he actually used it?


Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 01:19 PM
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Gustavo Chacin

Got a request for Gustavo Chacin's batted ball stats.

Chacin, Gustavo

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2004 52 -0.19 0.27 -0.22 33% 19% 43% 0% 12% 8% -2.6 2.2 -3.9 -0.5 -0.5 -5.3 -3.9
2005 872 -0.02 0.28 -0.09 33% 24% 39% 7% 14% 9% -3.7 43.2 -24.1 -7.0 -10.7 -4.1 -0.2
Avg. 462 -0.03 0.28 -0.10 33% 23% 39% 7% 14% 9% -2.3 16.8 -10.2 -2.8 -10.1 -8.9 -0.7
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 3.6 24.5 -14.6 -3.4 -8.5 0.8 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 11:46 AM
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White Sox Batted Balls

Regarding the question of how well the White Sox handle groundballs (vs. Jon Garland's ability to induce fieldable groundballs), here is a batted ball stats table for the White Sox pitchers and fielders as a whole. They look about average overall. Meanwhile, check out the difference between 2004 and 2005.

CHW

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 6131 0.00 0.38 -0.11 33% 20% 42% 10% 15% 10% -6.7 347.1 -206.3 -55.3 -90.4 -13.6 -0.1
2003 6067 -0.02 0.37 -0.13 31% 22% 42% 10% 17% 9% -25.3 355.1 -229.7 -38.4 -127.7 -71.9 -0.5
2004 6189 0.07 0.33 -0.09 33% 19% 44% 12% 16% 9% 110.4 282.1 -178.3 -46.8 -114.3 50.0 0.3
2005 6176 0.00 0.32 -0.11 31% 21% 44% 10% 17% 8% 2.6 304.3 -219.6 -50.6 -141.4 -115.6 -0.7
Avg. 6141 0.01 0.35 -0.11 32% 21% 43% 11% 17% 9% 18.7 321.9 -208.9 -47.7 -118.3 -39.8 -0.2
Vs. MLB 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 47.4 325.8 -193.5 -45.3 -113.2 10.2 0.1

And here's a special wacky case, Neal Cotts:

Cotts, Neal

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2003 69 -0.06 0.42 -0.32 21% 38% 31% 11% 14% 25% -0.5 6.3 -3.8 -1.0 2.3 3.2 1.8
2004 281 0.16 0.25 -0.13 32% 20% 44% 18% 21% 12% 9.7 9.7 -10.5 -1.5 -6.5 1.3 0.2
2005 248 -0.06 0.14 -0.11 29% 18% 46% 2% 23% 13% -2.8 3.8 -8.1 -2.8 -6.5 -16.4 -2.5
Avg. 199 0.04 0.23 -0.14 30% 21% 44% 11% 21% 14% 1.4 5.4 -7.1 -1.6 -4.5 -6.0 -1.1
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 1.5 10.6 -6.3 -1.5 -3.7 0.3 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 10:22 AM
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Pitcher Tables at THT

I've got a new article at The Hardball Times with more batted ball stats for pitchers. If you'd like to see a table for a specific pitcher, leave a comment here and I'll post it.

Okay, here's Dontrelle Willis. Note the HR/OF percentage from last year.

Willis, Dontrelle

Net Runs per Ball % of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2003 668 -0.03 0.35 -0.10 32% 23% 41% 7% 21% 9% -4.5 37.0 -18.7 -4.5 -22.1 -14.9 -0.8
2004 848 0.12 0.25 -0.08 32% 19% 45% 11% 16% 8% 23.6 29.0 -22.9 -6.5 -18.6 1.6 0.1
2005 960 -0.05 0.32 -0.12 27% 24% 45% 4% 18% 7% -10.3 54.3 -38.0 -7.8 -29.4 -35.6 -1.4
Avg. 825 0.01 0.30 -0.10 30% 22% 44% 7% 18% 8% 2.1 39.5 -26.4 -6.2 -23.6 -17.7 -0.8
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 6.4 43.8 -26.0 -6.1 -15.2 1.4 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/19 at 05:46 AM
Baseball Stats • (2) CommentsPermalink
Sunday, January 15, 2006

The “Final” Batted Ball Table?

Here's what I'm proposing as a "final" format for the batted ball data, using Barry Zito as an example. I've added BB rate and averages to the net runs allowed columns. If you have comments, please let me know. In the meantime, check out Zito's excellent groundball numbers -- except for 2004.

Zito, Barry

Net Runs per Ball Percent of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 939 -0.06 0.38 -0.14 37% 20% 35% 8% 19% 9% -15.4 48.8 -31.8 -10.5 -25.5 -34.6 -1.4
2003 957 -0.07 0.33 -0.14 35% 18% 39% 6% 15% 10% -16.4 42.3 -37.5 -13.0 -13.1 -37.6 -1.5
2004 926 0.04 0.34 -0.06 38% 19% 37% 10% 18% 10% 10.7 42.7 -15.7 -10.8 -19.1 6.7 0.3
2005 953 0.01 0.30 -0.15 31% 22% 41% 11% 18% 11% 2.8 43.9 -41.6 -10.5 -17.6 -24.4 -1.0
Avg. 944 -0.02 0.34 -0.12 35% 20% 38% 9% 18% 10% -4.5 44.6 -31.5 -11.3 -18.7 -22.1 -0.9
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 7.3 50.1 -29.7 -7.0 -17.4 1.6 0.1

Posted by Studes on 01/15 at 02:01 PM
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Friday, January 13, 2006

Mark Prior’s Batted Ball Data

I've updated the batted ball data table. Unfortunately, I only added data--which makes the table too wide. But all of the requests were good ones. I added Batters Faced, relative runs allowed on infield flies and runs allowed per game. For runs per game, I used an average of 38 batters faced per game. I know that it's better to use outs, but this was much easier for me to put together, given the data.

Here's a great case study. In the Hardball Times article, I noticed that most pitchers' NIP (Not In Play) net runs allowed (of the few I posted) were just about equal to their total net runs allowed. In other words, the net value of all batted balls was zero and pitchers seemed to be making their impact through the balls that weren't hit (strikeouts and walks).

So I started looking for a few pitchers for which this wasn't true and I quickly came across one Mark Prior. It turns out he has a weakness: groundballs.

Prior, Mark

Net Runs per Ball Percent of Batted Balls % of OF % of PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 486 0.03 0.32 -0.04 36% 24% 34% 12% 30% 2.7 22.0 -3.5 -3.5 -28.3 -11.1 -0.87
2003 863 -0.06 0.43 -0.07 31% 22% 41% 8% 28% -9.6 51.6 -14.8 -7.0 -52.1 -31.8 -1.40
2004 510 0.06 0.40 -0.02 37% 19% 36% 9% 27% 6.4 23.9 -2.3 -5.5 -24.3 -4.1 -0.30
2005 701 0.05 0.29 -0.04 37% 22% 37% 13% 27% 8.7 28.0 -6.9 -4.5 -34.7 -11.5 -0.62
Avg. 640 0.02 0.36 -0.04 35% 22% 37% 11% 28% 2.8 31.0 -6.0 -5.3 -34.3 -13.0 -0.77
MLB Avg. 0.04 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17%

In all four years, he allowed more runs per groundball than the major league average. I took a closer look at the data, and found that the following for his groundballs:

Obviously, Prior hasn't had the greatest fielding support. But he also could be giving up harder-hit ground balls than the average pitcher.


Posted by Studes on 01/13 at 09:14 PM
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Thursday, January 12, 2006

Felix Hernandez’s Data

Hernandez, Felix

Net Runs per Ball Percent of Batted Balls % of OF % of PA Total Net Runs
OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K OF LD GB NIP Runs
2005 0.03 0.37 -0.13 17% 14% 67% 11% 23% 1.0 11.6 -18.8 -14.4 -22.6
Avg. 0.03 0.37 -0.13 17% 14% 67% 11% 23% 1.0 11.6 -18.8 -14.4 -22.6
MLB Avg. 0.04 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17%

Posted by Studes on 01/12 at 02:38 PM
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Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Batted Ball Data

I’ve got an article on Thursday at The Hardball Times about batted ball stats.  In particular, I’ve posted a format for data tables, and I’d appreciate some comments about the usefulness of the tables, ways to improve them, etc.  Please leave your comments here.

Once it’s posted, you’ll find the article at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-you-like-your-data/.


Posted by Studes on 01/11 at 07:55 PM
Baseball Stats • (15) CommentsPermalink
Saturday, January 07, 2006

A New Baseball Graphs Site

Alex Reisner has created a stupendously good historical baseball graphs site.  He has graphs of every pennant race, really cool statistical displays that include individual players and historical rankings, and special PDF files such as a history of the New York Yankees.  You should really check this site out.


Posted by Studes on 01/07 at 10:47 PM
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Friday, January 06, 2006

The 1999 Met’s Postseason with WPA

They have a nice use of Win Probability going at MetsGeek, reviewing the Amazing Mets’ 1999 postseason run.  I can’t wait to see the WPA of that amazing series against the Braves, in which five of the six games were one-run affairs, the last two in extra innings.


Posted by Studes on 01/06 at 09:14 PM
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Thursday, January 05, 2006

The 1901 American League

In 1900, Ban Johnson’s Western League, a minor league feeder to the National League, changed its name to the American League and added a franchise in Chicago (the White Stockings).  That was just a warmup for 1901, when the League dropped its minor league status with the National, added franchises in major cities and basically announced it would sign National League players who didn’t have fresh contracts with their teams.

With Charles Comiskey, Connie Mack, Clark Griffith and John McGraw in his camp, as well as a willingness to pay players a decent salary, it didn’t take long for the junior league to acquire a major league glow.  In that first year, almost two-thirds of the AL’s players were former National Leaguers, including the biggest name of all, Nap Lajoie.  The AL attracted 1.7 million fans to its games, trailing the National by only 200 thousand.  The National League’s monopoly was at an end.

On the field, Philadelphia’s Lajoie led the league with a .422 average, 14 home runs and 42 Win Shares.  Boston’s Cy Young was 33-10 with a 1.62 ERA and 41 Win Shares.  But it was Chicago that took the pennant, led by Clark Griffiths’ 24-7 record and 2.67 ERA (27 Win Shares), and 39-year-old Dummy Hoy (25 Win Shares).  The White Sox were first for most of the year, though Young’s Boston Americans/Somersets (they wouldn’t be called the Red Sox until 1907) tied for first place in late August.

As you can see in the graphs, the difference between Chicago and Boston was offense, particularly On Base Percentage.  Hoy led the league in walks and being hit by pitches.  Fielder Jones also contributed a .412 OBP, second in the league to Lajoie.


Posted by Studes on 01/05 at 08:33 PM
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Update Site

I’ve updated the Baseball Graphs site.  Most of the changes are technical in nature, but the home page has changed and it will be much easier for me to manage the site in the future.  Hopefully, I’ll be posting more often to this blog.


Posted by Studes on 01/05 at 09:29 AM
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