The Baseball Graphs Blog
Thursday, May 26, 2005
Win Probability in a Softball League
Benedict has been posting Win Probability graphs for his softball league! (click on the PDF link). I love it.
Friday, May 20, 2005
Lookout Landing Win Expectancy
I didn’t realize this, but Lookout Landing has been tracking the “Win Expectancy” of each Mariner game. Unfortunately, they’re using Chris Shea’s Win Expectancy data instead of the Baseball Graphs spreadsheet, so their underlying Win Expectancy calculations are slightly off.
Still, it’s great to see the use of Win Probability on the web, and it’s also great to see graphs.
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Here are a couple of very good WPA bullpen posts:
- Thomas has a tremendous, detailed review of the Blue Jays’ April that might serve as a template for future reports.
- Completely independent of anything we’ve done here, John has developed a great site that tracks the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen WPA. This is another great example of how WPA could potentially be used on an ongoing basis.
As a reminder, Baseball Prospectus also posts their own WPA bullpen results, which they call Win Expectancy Added.
Thursday, May 05, 2005
Another Third Coast WPA Report
Awrr is on a roll with this review of yesterday’s Pirates/Astros game. He particularly does a nice job using “P” to critique Garner’s relief moves.
Pirates vs. Astros
Awrr has this writeup of the recent Astros/Pirates game. Hopefully, the newest version of the spreadsheet worked.
Looks like it was an interesting game.
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Fixed the Spreadsheet
A new version of the WPA spreadsheet is now available (this is version 1.5). This version fixes the Player Macro. Thanks to Awrr for pointing it out.
You can download it from ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
That Cardinal Comeback
The Birdwatch has a Win Probability Added review of the Cardinals’ incredible comeback last night. Nice job, though he used the win probabilities from 1979-1990, which was a lower run-scoring environment than today’s, plus there is a sample size issue even with 3,360 games in the database.
If he had used our spreadsheet instead, he would have found that the WP of the top of the ninth was 0.2% instead of 0.1%!!
Seriously, it’s nice to see other folks using the WP model.
Sunday, May 01, 2005
I’ve uploaded another version of the WPA spreadsheet. I haven’t fully tested it, but it seems to be working pretty well.
The features of this version are:
- Adds an “order” number to each play in the Log sheet, making sorting easier.
- Also adds the Date to each play in the Log sheet. This will enable you to copy and paste together multiple game files easily, because each play will have a date associated with it.
- Adds a new stat I’ve created called “Volatility.” Volatility is the difference in WP between a home run and strikeout in the particular at bat. It basically is a measure of the “drama” inherent in the situation. The potential values run from 0 to 1.
- Hopefully clarified the Directions by expanding them and moving them to a separate sheet.
Please download it and let me know if you find any bugs or whatnot.