The Baseball Graphs Blog

Monday, May 31, 2004

Win Shares Winning Percentage

Over at The Hardball Times, I’ve included something in the Win Shares stats called Win Shares Winning Percentage (or WSWP).  Now, winning percentages and loss shares don’t really work in the Win Shares system, as we’ve discussed before.  But I thought it would be enlightening to include some sort of Win Shares rate stat, so I gave it a shot.

The formula I used is simple: WS/(WS plus ExpWS).  The beauty of this formula is that it expresses a Win Shares rate as a winning percentage (from .000 to 1.000) except for players with negative Win Shares (whom I zeroed out).  The bad thing about this formula is that it’s not quite correct, for a couple of reasons I can think of:

- A true winning percentage formula would be WS/(2 times ExpWS).  So as a player moves from his expected Win Shares total, the formula turns increasingly wrong.

- On the other hand, extreme players like Barry Bonds are not given enough credit, because their “negative Loss Shares” are not given full credit.

In a way, I’m trying to create a formula in which two wrongs make a right.  So this is a formula that “satisfices.”  It’s not quite correct for a lot of players, but it’s not bad overall, particularly for player comparisons.

The other idea I had is to just list the ratio of Win Shares to Expected Win Shares.  This is probably a more honest metric, but it’s not as intuitive to many readers.

What do you folks think?  Should I go with one or the other, or just drop the idea altogether?


Posted by Studes on 05/31 at 07:28 AM
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Monday, May 17, 2004

2004 Win Shares Have Arrived

If you’ve been dropping by looking for 2004 Win Shares, good news.  They are now up and viewable at The Hardball Times.

I plan to update 2004 Win Shares every week or so.  Plus, we’ll continue to post Win Shares research on this site, on a sporadic basis.  So please continue to drop by once in a while.

You can quickly view both sites from the Baseball Graphs home page, which includes links to The Hardball Times, Win Shares research and a number of other baseball sites.

Thanks for your support.


Posted by Studes on 05/17 at 06:38 AM
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