The Baseball Graphs Blog

Friday, October 31, 2003

Pythagorean Win Shares

What if the Win Shares system was based on Pythagorean Wins, instead of Actual Wins?  That is, the total number of wins available to all players equaled the sum of their individual contributions, regardless of which team they were on?  Well, here ya go:

Click for more...
Posted by Studes on 10/31 at 10:23 PM
Tuesday, October 28, 2003

Applying Park Factors

After calculating the marginal runs for each team, the Win Shares methodology calls for a park adjustment to marginal runs.  This makes sense.  It’s a lot easier to score runs in Coors Park than Dodger Stadium, and Win Shares takes this into account.  However, the manner in which park factors are applied to marginal runs differs from typical park factor calculations, and it undermines the validity of the relationship between marginal runs and Win Shares.

Click for more...
Posted by Studes on 10/28 at 09:22 PM
Monday, October 27, 2003

An Analytic Framework for Win Shares

Over the winter, I hope to play “what if” scenarios with Pete’s 2003 Win Share spreadsheets.  In particular, I think it will be fun to tweak the Win Shares system to see if we can improve the output, or at least test the sensitivity of several variables.  I plan to explore questions we might have, such as: What if we added loss shares?  What if we changed the allocation between pitching and fielding?  Etc.?

First, though, we need to develop some standards for Win Shares validity.  We need a framework to guide our approach.  And I have an idea.

Click for more...
Posted by Studes on 10/27 at 01:13 PM