I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.

Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.

I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.

If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:

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Williams’ Lost Years

January 23, 2004

A quick and dirty look at Ted Williams’ lost Win Shares.

There’s a nice article at Aaron’s Baseball Blog about Ted Williams’ lost years (always a good topic for amazement).  Here’s an excerpt from an e-mail I sent him in reply:

I took a quick look at Williams’ Win Shares.  In 1942 he had 46 Win Shares, and in 1946 he had 49 Win Shares.  Those were both in the Top 20 single seasons of all time.  If you assume he would have averaged 45 during the three seasons he missed, that’s 135 Win Shares he didn’t get to contribute.

In 1951 he had 34 WS and he had 29 in 1954.  Assuming he would have gotten 30 each of the two years he mostly missed and add in the fact that he actually achieved nine, you get a net addition of 51.

135 and 51 more Win Shares makes 186 missed Win Shares.  Currently, he ranks 12th in career Win Shares at 555.  Add the 186 and he jumps to 741, second behind Ruth (756) and ahead of Cobb (722) and far ahead of the fourth guy, Wagner, at 655.

By the way, isn’t it interesting that the distribution of top career Win Share totals mimics the all-time home run lists?  Aaron hit 755 homers, Ruth had 756 Win Shares.  Ruth is second in home runs at 714, Cobb has 722 Win Shares.  Those are the only two guys above 700 on either list (this year, at any rate).

It starts to break down a bit after that, but not a lot.  There are six players with 600 to 700 career Win Shares and two players with 600 to 700 career home runs.  There are eleven guys with 500 to 600 Win Shares, and fifteen with 500 to 600 home runs.  23 guys with Win Shares in the 400’s, and 17 guys with home runs in the 400’s.

Add in the recent analysis by Ranting Mike, in which he concludes that 300 Win Shares is a reasonable number for serious Hall of Fame consideration, and you’ve got a pretty easy and familiar scale for judging career excellence.

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