I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.

Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.

I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.

If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:

Win Shares Intro
What They're Good For
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Twins trade Milton

December 03, 2003

The Twins got the Philadelphia Phillies to take Eric Milton and his $9 million contract off their hands. This is great for the Twins, as it appears that they did not have to throw any money into the deal.

My guess would be that Milton won’t have more than 15 Win Shares next year (that was his total in 2001, his best year). If so, he’ll represent a negative $5 million Net WS Value in 2004.

Milton appears to be healthy again, but I think the Phillies literally got taken to the bank on this deal.

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/7407264.htm

This deal may actually help us refine our thinking about Win Shares and salary. $9 million for 15 Win Shares is actually about the going rate, as we discussed in the third “Money for Nothing” article. However, 15 Win Shares is probably the maximum you can expect from Milton. Certainly not 20. This is the problem with his contract. There’s no upside to the projected Net WS Value of negative $5 million.

I’ll propose that a player should only receive a contract of this size if there is a decent chance he will contribute 20 to 25 Win Shares. In my mind, Milton doesn’t qualify.

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