The “Final” Batted Ball Table?

January 15, 2006

What happened to Barry Zito in 2004?

Here's what I'm proposing as a "final" format for the batted ball data, using Barry Zito as an example. I've added BB rate and averages to the net runs allowed columns. If you have comments, please let me know. In the meantime, check out Zito's excellent groundball numbers -- except for 2004.

Zito, Barry

Net Runs per Ball Percent of Batted Balls %/OF %/PA Total Net Runs
BFP OF LD GB OF% LD% GB% HR K BB OF LD GB IF NIP Tot R/G
2002 939 -0.06 0.38 -0.14 37% 20% 35% 8% 19% 9% -15.4 48.8 -31.8 -10.5 -25.5 -34.6 -1.4
2003 957 -0.07 0.33 -0.14 35% 18% 39% 6% 15% 10% -16.4 42.3 -37.5 -13.0 -13.1 -37.6 -1.5
2004 926 0.04 0.34 -0.06 38% 19% 37% 10% 18% 10% 10.7 42.7 -15.7 -10.8 -19.1 6.7 0.3
2005 953 0.01 0.30 -0.15 31% 22% 41% 11% 18% 11% 2.8 43.9 -41.6 -10.5 -17.6 -24.4 -1.0
Avg. 944 -0.02 0.34 -0.12 35% 20% 38% 9% 18% 10% -4.5 44.6 -31.5 -11.3 -18.7 -22.1 -0.9
MLB Avg. 0.03 0.36 -0.10 31% 21% 44% 11% 17% 10% 7.3 50.1 -29.7 -7.0 -17.4 1.6 0.1


This is really cool.

I always thought of Zito as a flyball pitcher.
From 2001-2004 his G/F ratios (as per ESPN, so they’re different from the BIS data) were 0.85, 0.74 (Cy Young year), 0.89, 0.85.  In 2005 it was 1.05. 

So really, Zito’s early success was predicated on his extreme ability to generate low run value outfield flys (mainly by posting low HR/OF rates) as well as above average IF generation (although this is fueled by his below average GB/FB ratio). 

If I understand this all correctly, Zito (2005-)is now:
1.  Average on Outfield flies.
2.  Average on balls not in play.
3.  Above-average on infield flies.
4.  Gives up a below-average amount of ground balls.
5.  But the ones he gives up have a below-average run value.

So Zito saves 2-3 runs above average from IF and the rest of his success is really tied to his GB rate unless he rediscovers his OF abilities.

[He’s also a bit better than average on line drives I guess, so that helps too.]

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  01/19  at  06:33 AM

I think that’s a pretty good interpretation of the stats.  My only caution is that you shouldn’t try to draw too many conclusions from a year or two.  Things change, bad hops sometimes bunch togehter, players get hurt and change approaches, etc.  Plus, there are good old sample size issues.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  01/19  at  06:45 AM
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