I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.

Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.

I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.

If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:

Win Shares Intro
What They're Good For
Mathematical Details
Archives
December, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
January, 2008
January, 2007
December, 2006
November, 2006
October, 2006
September, 2006
August, 2006
July, 2006
June, 2006
May, 2006
April, 2006
March, 2006
February, 2006
January, 2006
October, 2005
September, 2005
July, 2005
May, 2005
April, 2005
March, 2005
February, 2005
January, 2005
December, 2004
November, 2004
October, 2004
September, 2004
August, 2004
July, 2004
June, 2004
May, 2004
March, 2004
February, 2004
January, 2004
December, 2003
November, 2003
October, 2003


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If there is any aspect of WPA, Win Shares or baseball graphics you're interested in, drop me an e-mail and I'll look into it. Syndicate Baseball Graphs:

The Curious Case of Mike Gonzalez

January 23, 2005

How can a reliever have awesome stats yet contribute little to his team?

Last week, I posted an article at the Hardball Times called Ranking the Relievers.  In it, I presented a stat I had calculated called WPA (Win Probability Added) to measure how much each reliver had helped his team win.  I won’t go into the details here, but I urge you to read if you haven’t already.

Rich Lederer sent me an e-mail, asking why Mike Gonzalez didn’t show up on the list of WPA leaders.  Good question.  Gonzalez had a fine year in 2004, with a 1.25 ERA in 43.1 innings, including 55 strikeouts, 6 walks, 32 hits and 6 home runs allowed.

Here’s my e-mailed reply to Rich:

Believe it or not, Gonzalez only had a WPA of 0.294.

Out of 49 appearances, his WPA went down 15 times, which is surprising given his stats.  He particularly had a terrible June.

In one outing against the Reds in June, he came in with the bases loaded, a two-run lead and two outs in the 7th and gave up a grand slam.  -.638 WPA

Five days before, he had come in against the Mariners in the seventh, runners on first and second, one out, scored tied and gave up two runs.  Neither was credited against him.  WPA of -.427

His highest “leverage” appearance came on the 5th of June against the Cubs: bases loaded in the 7th, up by one.  Gave up a sacrifice and base hit, allowed all three runs to score (none credited against him).  WPA of -.340

His best WPA was 0.264, in May against the Padres (his first appearance of the year).  One on, one out in the 6th, he pitched one and a third innings of scoreless ball and didn’t allow the run to score.

He did well in lots of other appearances, but they tended not to be high leverage ones.  Pretty interesting case study.

The bottom line is that Gonzalez did a fine job, but not usually when the game was on the line.  It’s a great example of what you can learn from a stat like WPA.

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