Of Runs Created

November 10, 2003

When contemplating batting Win Shares, many observers seem to forget that the Win Shares version of Runs Created includes “clutch” batting statistics.  In particular, it includes at bats and BA (relative to overall BA) with runners in scoring position, and proportion of home runs with runners on base.  This makes a big difference, and it increases the accuracy of Runs Created.

Here’s a graph, by team, of 2003 Runs Created (park-adjusted) vs. actual Runs Scored.

image

As you can see, this is a really good fit.  The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which is a measure of reliability, is 19 runs for the 2003 data.  RMSE for the “plainer” runs created formula in 2002 was 26 runs.  In 2001, it was 25.  This is not a conclusive study; my only point is that the inclusion of clutch stats does increase the accuracy of Runs Created.

Is it legitimate to include these stats?  In a word, yes.  Although the prevailing sabermetric opinion is that clutch hitting is not much of an identifiable skill, players do hit better and worse with runners in scoring position in any given year, and that adds or subtracts value to the team.  The Win Shares system is intended to capture and measure value.

Next time you scratch your head wondering about the batting Win Shares of a player, thinking that they don’t match your OPS calculations or whatever, remember a couple of things:

- The team’s pythagorean variance impacts batting Win Shares
- Clutch hitting impacts batting Win Shares
- The number of below-threshold batters on the team impacts batting Win Shares

This last factor should be corrected, IMO.

I do understand that some sabermetricians would use different run estimators, such as Base Runs, instead of Runs Created, because they do a better job of representing value at the extremes (such as Barry Bonds’ production).  I understand that.  In fact, I use Base Runs in other parts of this site.

However, given everything else that I’d like to explore about Win Shares, I’m not planning to tackle this issue right now.  Runs Created works pretty well, especially when clutch stats are included.



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