Mark Prior’s Batted Ball Data
January 13, 2006
Guess what his weakness is…
I've updated the batted ball data table. Unfortunately, I only added data--which makes the table too wide. But all of the requests were good ones. I added Batters Faced, relative runs allowed on infield flies and runs allowed per game. For runs per game, I used an average of 38 batters faced per game. I know that it's better to use outs, but this was much easier for me to put together, given the data.
Here's a great case study. In the Hardball Times article, I noticed that most pitchers' NIP (Not In Play) net runs allowed (of the few I posted) were just about equal to their total net runs allowed. In other words, the net value of all batted balls was zero and pitchers seemed to be making their impact through the balls that weren't hit (strikeouts and walks).
So I started looking for a few pitchers for which this wasn't true and I quickly came across one Mark Prior. It turns out he has a weakness: groundballs.
Prior, Mark |
|
| | Net Runs per Ball | Percent of Batted Balls | % of OF | % of PA | Total Net Runs |
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G |
| 2002 | 486 | 0.03 | 0.32 | -0.04 | 36% | 24% | 34% | 12% | 30% | 2.7 | 22.0 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -28.3 | -11.1 | -0.87 |
| 2003 | 863 | -0.06 | 0.43 | -0.07 | 31% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 28% | -9.6 | 51.6 | -14.8 | -7.0 | -52.1 | -31.8 | -1.40 |
| 2004 | 510 | 0.06 | 0.40 | -0.02 | 37% | 19% | 36% | 9% | 27% | 6.4 | 23.9 | -2.3 | -5.5 | -24.3 | -4.1 | -0.30 |
| 2005 | 701 | 0.05 | 0.29 | -0.04 | 37% | 22% | 37% | 13% | 27% | 8.7 | 28.0 | -6.9 | -4.5 | -34.7 | -11.5 | -0.62 |
| Avg. | 640 | 0.02 | 0.36 | -0.04 | 35% | 22% | 37% | 11% | 28% | 2.8 | 31.0 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -34.3 | -13.0 | -0.77 |
| MLB Avg. | | 0.04 | 0.36 | -0.10 | 31% | 21% | 44% | 11% | 17% |
In all four years, he allowed more runs per groundball than the major league average. I took a closer look at the data, and found that the following for his groundballs:
- Outs: 58% vs. MLB average of 60%
- Double plays: 5.0% vs. 6.4%, though this could be the result of walking less batters
- Reached on error: 4.4% vs. 2.5%. Not his fault, but I keep it in the stats
- Singles: 23% vs. 21%
- Doubles: 2.3% vs. 1.9%
Obviously, Prior hasn't had the greatest fielding support. But he also could be giving up harder-hit ground balls than the average pitcher.
Dave,
First time visitor to Baseball Graphs. What a great resource and thank you for translating stats into very readable graphs. Makes baseball that much more interesting, if there ever is room to make baseball more interesting. Anyway, Batted Balls Data is one of my favorite stats and if you could check out Brandon Webb and if the time exists, Doug Davis, I would be grateful. 
Thanks again and good job!
P.S. Do you have a tip jar or a donation courier? Just asking. 
Ron from Chicago
Posted by on 01/19 at 05:48 PM
Hi Ron,
Thanks for the nice comments. I don’t have a donation button (good idea!) but the best thing you could do to support the site would be to purchase the Hardball Times Annual from http://www.hardballtimes.com.
I’ve already posted Brandon Webb’s stats. I’ll add Doug Davis soon.
Posted by on 01/19 at 06:09 PM
I’d like to see several of the other Cubs starters to compare the net runs per ground ball rate to Prior’s since you mention it may in part be related to defense.
Posted by on 01/27 at 09:26 AM
Hey Dan. I’ll do ya one better, a table of the entire Cubs’ team each of the past four years.
Posted by on 01/27 at 10:05 AM
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