I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.
Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.
I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.
If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:
Win Shares Intro
Over at the Hardball Times, Lee Sinins has been doing a superb job of updating Barry Bonds’ all-time lists during the season. But here’s one more for you, the all-time Win Shares list.
At the beginning of the season, this was the list of all players with 600 or more Win Shares in their entire career:
Ruth 756
Cobb 722
Wagner 655
Aaron 643
Mays 642
Young 634
Speaker 630
Bonds 611
Musial 604
Barry Bonds has already generated 37 Win Shares this year, which means he has zoomed past Tris Speaker, Cy Young, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. Here’s the updated list:
Ruth 756
Cobb 722
Wagner 655
Bonds 648
Aaron 643
Mays 642
Young 634
Speaker 630
Musial 604
By the time the season is over, Bonds will almost certainly pass Honus Wagner to rank third on this list. Someday, you’ll tell your grandchildren that you saw Barry Bonds play baseball.
I have been using Bill James figures for Win Shares and have a running total for many players, and the numbers are different than these. For example, I had Bonds with 652 WS at the beginning of 2004, with this year`s total putting him over 700 (by chance coinciding with HRs!). Is the formula you use that different?
I do use a slightly different formula, but only for 2004. I think your baseline may be off.
According to the Win Shares book, Bonds had 523 Win Shares at the end of 2001. He’d have to average over 60 Win Shares a year in 2002 and 2003 to make 652 at the beginning of this year. I have him down for 49 in 2002 and 39 in 2003, giving him 611 at the beginning of this year. My numbers may be off a bit, but I don’t think they’re off by that much.
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