I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.

Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.

I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.

If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:

Win Shares Intro
What They're Good For
Mathematical Details
Archives
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January, 2007
December, 2006
November, 2006
October, 2006
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August, 2006
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April, 2006
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January, 2006
October, 2005
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December, 2004
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September, 2004
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If there is any aspect of WPA, Win Shares or baseball graphics you're interested in, drop me an e-mail and I'll look into it. Syndicate Baseball Graphs:

WPA developments

May 01, 2006

Two big news items in the world of WPA

There are two “historic” landmarks today in the world of Win Probability Added.

• Tangotiger has published the methodology behind his Leverage Index at The Hardball Times.  Leverage Index, as a spinoff of WPA, may actually be the most useful application of WPA.  It measures the criticality of a situation and serves as a guide for relief pitching, pinch hitting and other in-game strategies. As far as I know, Doug Drinen was the first to publish such a measure.  His was called “P,” and he published it in the late 1990’s in the Big, Bad Baseball Annual.  P was based on the number of outs required to finish out the inning without a run scoring.  Tango developed the Leverage Index a few years ago and published a number of fine related studies on his website, exhibiting the usefulness of LI.  Then Keith Woolner appropriated Tango’s label but created his own definition of LI in the 2005 Baseball Prospectus, based on the difference in WP when one incremental run is allowed. In other words, Drinen’s methodology was based on incremental outs, Woolner’s was based on an incremental run.  Tango’s system (actually, he has four different approaches) is based on the variability in outcomes OR the impact of an excellent hitter or pitcher on WPA.  His approach is definitely the most sound of the three, and I encourage you to read the article.
• Fangraphs has improved its game WPA graphs, adding a box score below the graph (hey, David, score by inning would be huge.  In your spare time…) which vastly improves the usefulness of the graphs. More importantly, David has also added running individual WPA totals to the team stats, so you can see who is leading each team in WPA.  He also totals WPA by batting, starting and relieving, which is a superb “diagnostic” way of looking at a team. Those folks tracking WPA for each game and posting it on your websites, don’t give up!  David is applying the “gross form” of WPA, which means that he isn’t adjusting WPA for the run environment and he isn’t splitting WPA credit between pitching and fielding.  There’s is still real value in following a specific game and logging its WPA. But I’m not complaining; this is a tremendous step forward for baseball fans (whether they know it or not) and David deserves many thanks and praise.

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