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Three Up, Three Down

Three Up, Three Down

December 30, 2003

Over at a Minnesota Twins’ blog called Three Up, Three Down , there is an article using Win Shares to assess the Twins’ offseason developments.  This is a relatively simple exercise, and it shows the potential power of Win Shares.  However, it’s worth pointing out a few things:

- Looking at contract dollars, the Twins have probably increased their potential Net Win Shares Value next year.
- Relievers’ Win Shares are a function of how they’ve been used by their managers.  So it’s easy to see that Joe Nathan’s, or someone’s, Win Shares will increase next year and fill in the bullpen gap somewhat.
- It’s better to use Expected Win Shares for this sort of analysis.  Dustin Mohr had -4.1 WSAA, Denny Hocking had -1.5, Kenny Rogers had -0.6.  These guys are easily replaceable except for, perhaps, Rogers.
- Joe Mauer’s potential Win Shares are not included in next year’s projections.

If the Twins had signed Guardado or Hawkins, their offseason would look pretty good.  I’d worry about their starting rotation, too—Santana was their only above-average starter last year.

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