Shortstop Fielding Win Shares
December 05, 2003
David Pinto has posted the latest round of his “probabilistic range” analysis, this time for shortstops. The data does not match very well with fielding Win Shares for shortstops, as shown in the following graph.
I’ve only included shortstops who fielded at least 100 outs, which are indicated by the size of the circles.
The correlation coefficient between the two sets of figures is .45, and the R squared is .20. That is not really very good. Based on the method David used to derive his figures, I think they are a much truer indication of fielding performance in 2003.
I’m just now starting to get into the pitching and fielding portion of my Win Shares analysis, and this is exactly the sort of data that is going to help refine the system. Based on this data, I plan to focus on Izturis, who was apparently overvalued by Win Shares, and Furcal, who was apparently undervalued.
I have a lot of work to do, but here’s one giveaway: Izturis and Furcal had about the same number of fielding claim points. Izturis had .860 claim points per inning, and Fucal had .853 claim points per inning. The difference is that Izturis received almost twice as many fielding Win Shares as Furcal for the same number of claim points.
Stay tuned! (But don’t expect anything too quickly—this is a lot of work).
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