I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.
Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.
I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.
If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:
Win Shares Intro
What happens to pitchers with major injuries?
I was asked to put together some stat tables for pitchers who suffered, and subsequently recovered, from injuries. Here a "mini-survey" of some of the names we thought of.
Randy Johnson missed time in 2003 due to knee and back injuries, if memory serves correctly.
Johnson, Randy | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 1035 | 0.01 | 0.36 | -0.08 | 30% | 20% | 47% | 12% | 32% | 8% | 2.3 | 43.2 | -22.4 | -4.5 | -69.9 | -50.6 | -1.9 |
| 2003 | 489 | 0.11 | 0.38 | -0.10 | 29% | 29% | 40% | 15% | 26% | 7% | 10.2 | 34.6 | -13.2 | -2.0 | -25.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 2004 | 964 | 0.01 | 0.27 | -0.07 | 33% | 19% | 43% | 8% | 30% | 6% | 1.8 | 31.5 | -18.6 | -5.3 | -66.5 | -57.9 | -2.3 |
| 2005 | 920 | 0.11 | 0.30 | -0.07 | 34% | 17% | 45% | 14% | 23% | 6% | 23.7 | 32.4 | -20.1 | -6.0 | -42.2 | -12.9 | -0.5 |
| Avg. | 852 | 0.05 | 0.32 | -0.08 | 32% | 20% | 44% | 12% | 28% | 7% | 8.5 | 33.6 | -17.9 | -4.3 | -54.4 | -35.1 | -1.6 |
| vs. MLB | 0.02 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 1% | -1% | 1% | 1% | 12% | -3% | 2.0 | -11.6 | 8.9 | 2.0 | -38.7 | |||
Kevin Millwood missed time in 2004, but I forget why.
Millwood, Kevin | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 895 | -0.07 | 0.30 | -0.12 | 29% | 24% | 44% | 7% | 20% | 8% | -13.8 | 44.6 | -32.7 | -4.0 | -28.6 | -35.6 | -1.5 |
| 2003 | 930 | -0.05 | 0.38 | -0.10 | 31% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 18% | 8% | -10.2 | 60.0 | -26.6 | -9.5 | -26.5 | -16.1 | -0.7 |
| 2004 | 628 | 0.05 | 0.38 | -0.08 | 34% | 22% | 41% | 7% | 20% | 9% | 6.9 | 34.5 | -13.5 | -2.7 | -18.0 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| 2005 | 799 | 0.04 | 0.33 | -0.10 | 29% | 21% | 46% | 11% | 18% | 7% | 6.2 | 40.0 | -26.9 | -6.0 | -24.8 | -13.6 | -0.6 |
| Avg. | 813 | -0.02 | 0.35 | -0.10 | 31% | 23% | 43% | 8% | 19% | 8% | -2.9 | 44.5 | -24.6 | -5.5 | -25.0 | -15.5 | -0.7 |
| vs. MLB | -0.05 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -1% | 2% | -1% | -3% | 2% | -2% | -9.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -10.0 | |||
Baseball Graphs favorite Mark Prior had Achilles and elbow problems in 2004 (and 2005):
Prior, Mark | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 486 | 0.03 | 0.32 | -0.04 | 36% | 24% | 34% | 12% | 30% | 9% | 2.7 | 22.0 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -28.3 | -11.1 | -0.9 |
| 2003 | 863 | -0.06 | 0.43 | -0.07 | 31% | 22% | 41% | 8% | 28% | 7% | -9.6 | 51.6 | -14.8 | -7.0 | -52.1 | -31.8 | -1.4 |
| 2004 | 510 | 0.06 | 0.40 | -0.02 | 37% | 19% | 36% | 9% | 27% | 10% | 6.4 | 23.9 | -2.3 | -5.5 | -24.3 | -4.1 | -0.3 |
| 2005 | 701 | 0.05 | 0.29 | -0.04 | 37% | 22% | 37% | 13% | 27% | 9% | 8.7 | 28.0 | -6.9 | -4.5 | -34.7 | -11.5 | -0.6 |
| Avg. | 640 | 0.01 | 0.36 | -0.05 | 35% | 22% | 38% | 10% | 28% | 9% | 1.6 | 30.5 | -6.5 | -5.0 | -36.6 | -17.2 | -1.0 |
| vs. MLB | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 4% | 1% | -6% | -1% | 11% | -1% | -3.4 | -3.5 | 13.7 | -0.3 | -24.8 | |||
Jon Lieber missed 2003 due to Tommy John surgery. The "average" in this case refers to the most recent two years.
Lieber, Jon | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 582 | -0.03 | 0.36 | -0.08 | 31% | 23% | 43% | 9% | 15% | 2% | -4.2 | 37.6 | -15.9 | -4.3 | -21.0 | -10.2 | -0.7 |
| 2003 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | #DIV/0! |
| 2004 | 749 | 0.06 | 0.40 | -0.09 | 31% | 18% | 48% | 9% | 14% | 3% | 11.1 | 44.1 | -27.4 | -3.2 | -23.1 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2005 | 912 | 0.09 | 0.27 | -0.08 | 28% | 22% | 46% | 15% | 16% | 5% | 17.6 | 40.4 | -26.6 | -7.8 | -28.6 | -5.8 | -0.2 |
| Avg. | 831 | 0.08 | 0.33 | -0.09 | 30% | 20% | 47% | 12% | 15% | 4% | 14.5 | 42.5 | -26.7 | -5.4 | -26.9 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| vs. MLB | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -2% | -1% | 3% | 1% | -1% | -6% | 8.1 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | -11.6 | |||
Andy Pettitte's elbow gave him fits in 2004.
Pettitte, Andy | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 570 | -0.08 | 0.34 | -0.07 | 28% | 24% | 45% | 5% | 17% | 6% | -9.7 | 35.1 | -12.9 | -3.0 | -16.8 | -7.2 | -0.5 |
| 2003 | 896 | 0.05 | 0.36 | -0.07 | 23% | 22% | 52% | 10% | 20% | 6% | 8.0 | 50.9 | -25.2 | -5.5 | -36.2 | -6.9 | -0.3 |
| 2004 | 346 | 0.13 | 0.31 | -0.13 | 22% | 21% | 53% | 12% | 23% | 9% | 6.7 | 15.0 | -15.9 | -2.3 | -13.3 | -8.9 | -1.0 |
| 2005 | 875 | 0.01 | 0.30 | -0.14 | 24% | 23% | 50% | 9% | 20% | 5% | 1.4 | 43.5 | -46.0 | -4.8 | -35.6 | -44.3 | -1.9 |
| Avg. | 672 | 0.02 | 0.33 | -0.10 | 24% | 23% | 50% | 9% | 20% | 6% | 2.4 | 34.7 | -24.0 | -3.7 | -28.1 | -18.5 | -1.0 |
| vs. MLB | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -7% | 2% | 6% | -2% | 3% | -3% | -2.8 | -0.9 | -2.9 | 1.2 | -15.7 | |||
Casey Fossum had shoulder problems in 2003 and had rotator cuff surgery at the end of the season.
Fossum, Casey | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Runs per Ball | % of Batted Balls | %/OF | %/PA | Total Net Runs | |||||||||||||
| BFP | OF | LD | GB | OF% | LD% | GB% | HR | K | BB | OF | LD | GB | IF | NIP | Tot | R/G | |
| 2002 | 461 | 0.03 | 0.39 | -0.08 | 32% | 24% | 41% | 10% | 22% | 7% | 2.6 | 29.5 | -10.3 | -2.8 | -18.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2003 | 346 | 0.03 | 0.41 | -0.10 | 38% | 21% | 33% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 2.8 | 21.5 | -7.7 | -4.8 | -6.4 | 5.3 | 0.6 |
| 2004 | 652 | 0.20 | 0.36 | -0.08 | 33% | 21% | 41% | 19% | 18% | 11% | 29.0 | 33.3 | -14.7 | -5.5 | -11.0 | 28.0 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 725 | 0.02 | 0.33 | -0.07 | 34% | 23% | 39% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 4.2 | 38.6 | -14.1 | -5.3 | -12.4 | 11.2 | 0.6 |
| Avg. | 546 | 0.08 | 0.37 | -0.08 | 34% | 22% | 39% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 9.6 | 29.7 | -11.4 | -4.4 | -12.9 | 9.5 | 0.7 |
| vs. MLB | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 3% | 1% | -5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5.4 | 0.8 | 5.8 | -0.4 | -2.9 | |||
Studes,
It does seem like the run value per LD is higher while the pitcher is injured then in the following year.
It seems like when a pitcher is injured in year X, the best thing to do is use the average of that year and the previous two years to guess the runs per ball numbers in year X+1
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