I initially created Baseball Graphs to develop new and better ways of presenting baseball statistics. The 2003 season was my first full-season attempt, and it turned out pretty well. I now spend a lot of my time creating and formatting the baseball stats at The Hardball Times.

Along the way, I've also picked up the writing bug. I spend most of my energy writing for THT, but sometimes I like to write about more geeky stuff, baseball research and things like that. That's what this blog is for.

I'm very interested in graphics and other information display, so I'll probably post links to creative stuff like that. I also plan to write historical articles that complement the historical graphs. And I have inexplicably developed an interest in baseball win-related stats, such as Bill James's Win Shares and something called Win Probability Added. So you can expect a few posts about that stuff too.

If you're interested, I've created a complex spreadsheet full of WPA logic, which you can download at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. If you'd like to read more about Win Shares, try these links:

Win Shares Intro
What They're Good For
Mathematical Details
Archives
December, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
January, 2008
January, 2007
December, 2006
November, 2006
October, 2006
September, 2006
August, 2006
July, 2006
June, 2006
May, 2006
April, 2006
March, 2006
February, 2006
January, 2006
October, 2005
September, 2005
July, 2005
May, 2005
April, 2005
March, 2005
February, 2005
January, 2005
December, 2004
November, 2004
October, 2004
September, 2004
August, 2004
July, 2004
June, 2004
May, 2004
March, 2004
February, 2004
January, 2004
December, 2003
November, 2003
October, 2003


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If there is any aspect of WPA, Win Shares or baseball graphics you're interested in, drop me an e-mail and I'll look into it. Syndicate Baseball Graphs:

Extreme Win Shares

February 11, 2004

What if we took all the stuff we’ve talked about this offseason and recalculated 2003 Win Shares?

It’s been a fun offseason, but I’d like to stop and catch my breath a bit.  In fact, this is probably a good time to add up the Win Share calculations we’ve explored so far this offseason:

• We applied park factors differently (not much of an impact).

• We opened the door for negative Win Shares, which are important to maintain validity.

• Played around with Game Shares and created the Win Shares Baseline (or, Expected Win Shares, to use Charlie Saeger’s terminology).  This sets the stage for replacement level analyses.

• Looked at relievers, and concluded that one of the pitching claim point calculations favors relivers by giving extra credit for saves.  We took out that calculation altogether.

• Posted to a Baseball Primer discussion about the relative value of starters and relievers, which included the “unpublished study” that relievers probably achieve ERA’s at least 0.60 lower, on average, than they would achieve in a starting role.  I’m tempted to say that any unpublished study by Tangotiger is good enough for me, but I don’t want him to get cocky or anything.

• Discussed the relative allocation to offense and defense, with no definitive conclusions.  However, there was a lot of interest in the “Fibonacci number” (61% instead of 52%).

• Played with the split between pitching and fielding, including my own approach based on FIP and DER.

We’ve played with all the aspects of Win Shares that I wanted to get to, except for leveraged innings and individual fielding positions, and the latter is going to be a LOT of work.  So, I figured, why not rest a bit, pull all these analyses together and see what we get?

I call these Extreme Win Shares, and they’re based on all of the above factors, including:

• Establishing replacement level as 50% of a player’s Win Shares baseline.  I would tell you that a lot of intricate analysis went into that figure, but that would be lying.  Actually, a little fairy suggested it.

• Using my proposed solution for splitting Win Shares between pitching and fielding.

• Using the Fibonacci number (61% and 161% instead of 52% and 152%) to allocate Win Shares between offense and defense.  I’m not sure this step is really appropriate, but what the heck.

So here are the 2003 Extreme Win Shares, expressed as Win Shares Above Replacement:

- American League Extreme Win Shares
- National League Extreme Win Shares

I’ll be talking about Extreme Win Shares a little bit more in the next one or two articles, but you can see that pitchers are upgraded, relievers are downgraded, and players in important fielding positions (shortstop, catcher) are upgraded.

What do folks think?  Is this an improvement?

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