The Baseball Graphs Blog

Pirates vs. Astros

Awrr has this writeup of the recent Astros/Pirates game. Hopefully, the newest version of the spreadsheet worked.

Looks like it was an interesting game.

Fixed the Spreadsheet

A new version of the WPA spreadsheet is now available (this is version 1.5). This version fixes the Player Macro. Thanks to Awrr for pointing it out.

You can download it from ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa

That Cardinal Comeback

The Birdwatch has a Win Probability Added review of the Cardinals' incredible comeback last night. Nice job, though he used the win probabilities from 1979-1990, which was a lower run-scoring environment than today's, plus there is a sample size issue even with 3,360 games in the database.

If he had used our spreadsheet instead, he would have found that the WP of the top of the ninth was 0.2% instead of 0.1%!!

Seriously, it's nice to see other folks using the WP model.

WPA 1.4

I've uploaded another version of the WPA spreadsheet. I haven't fully tested it, but it seems to be working pretty well.

The features of this version are:

- Adds an "order" number to each play in the Log sheet, making sorting easier.
- Also adds the Date to each play in the Log sheet. This will enable you to copy and paste together multiple game files easily, because each play will have a date associated with it.
- Adds a new stat I've created called "Volatility." Volatility is the difference in WP between a home run and strikeout in the particular at bat. It basically is a measure of the "drama" inherent in the situation. The potential values run from 0 to 1.
- Hopefully clarified the Directions by expanding them and moving them to a separate sheet.

Please download it and let me know if you find any bugs or whatnot.

Red Sox vs. Devil Rays

I posted a review of a Boston/Tampa Bay game a couple of days ago at The Hardball Times. I also added the "P" of each situation to the graph, which might appeal a bit more to everyone's graphical esthetics.

Also, there is a satirical take on Win Probability from Tim Keown at ESPN. I have a feeling he might be a contributor to the RedsZone Forum!

Astros' WPA

There's a new blog in town, Third Coast Baseball, that has a very nice WPA review of the last two Astros' games. This looks superb. As other folks publish their own WPA reviews, please post links to them here. It will be fun to see how everyone is handling the output, and share ideas.

Blue Jays/Red Sox

David Tybor has posted another WPA graph -- this one of last night's Blue Jays/Red Sox game, which was won in the late innings by the Blue Jays.

David's approach to graphing the game is confusing to me, and we both thought it might be worth discussing here on the site. Here are some points:

• Essentially, the scale of the chart flips every time one team rises above/below 50%. This is confusing to me.
• Remember that some segment of the population is colorblind, meaning they won't be able to make any sense from this graph.
• David's response is that there is a lot of white space on the graphs I produce (good point!), and he was trying a new approach.

WPA Updates

I posted a Game in Review at the Hardball Times, covering the pitching duel between Rich Harden and Jarrod Washburn last Saturday. Also, David Tybor has discovered the spreadsheet, and he posted a graph of last night's Mets/Phillies game (scroll down to see it).

I love this graph, by the way. The final score was 5-4, Phillies, which would lead you to believe it was a close game. But the Phils led 5-0 going into the ninth, and even Cliff Floyd's home run didn't have a significant effect on the Phillies' chances of winning.

In other news, I've stopped tracking the Reds' WPA on a daily basis. It was just too much time, because I was trying to capture fielding WPA as well, which meant I had to watch every game in its entirety. But as a result, I do have some beginning thoughts on how to allocate WPA debits and credits between pitchers and fielders, using only play-by-play logs.

• Credit the following events 100% to the pitcher: Strikeouts, walks, HBP's and home runs, for obvious reasons.
• Also, credit pop flies to the infield 100% to the pitcher, because they are converted into outs virtually 100% of the time.
• Line drives are trickier. My observation is that line drives caught by infielders are mostly a matter of chance, though you could also call it positioning. So I don't tend to give infielders much credit for catching line drives, just as I don't give them much of a debit for not catching line drives. Maybe 5% at the most?
• Line drives to the outfield do provide more of a chance for fielders to make an impact. Maybe 10%?
• Groundballs and flyballs provide fielders with the greatest chance to make an impact, and I would credit and debit 10% to 20% of the outcome to them in those cases.