The Baseball Graphs Blog

Another spreadsheet upload

I uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet. The previous one had a slight lookup problem in one of the tables that was throwing off some of the math. Please download this latest, which is still version 1.3, from ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa.

Two game updates:

The Cheat posted a WPA review of one of the White Sox's game.

And I've got a review of the latest Reds' game, featuring the intentional walk to Pujols with one out, and a game-ending double play.

New version of the spreadsheet uploaded

I found a bug in the spreadsheet involving run differentials of more than ten. Fixed it, and uploaded the new version (Version 1.3) to ftp.baseballgraphs.com.

I also posted the WPA of the most recent Reds/Astros game at the RedsZone Forum.

Sky's WPA

Skyking has written up two games using WPA. I should have linked to these before, because he does a nice job of using WPA to diagnose a game. Maybe I'll steal a couple of his ideas!

Here's the link for the Devil Rays/Blue Jays game.

And here's the link to the Braves/Marlins game.

Rangers/Mariners Game

I chronicle the WPA of last Saturday's Rangers/Mariners game over at The Hardball Times. If you have any questions or comments about the article, you can post them here.

A central issue I raise in the article is how to measure the criticality (or importance, or leverage) of a specific situation. There are three definitions I know of:

• "P", which is the difference in WP between the current situation and the WP if the pitcher pitches out of the situation to the end of the inning with no runs scoring. Invented by Doug Drinen.


• Tangotiger's "Leveraged Index", which is similar, except that it measures the difference between the current situation and what would happen if the batter does something positive (I'm not sure how Tango calculates this). The key to Leveraged Index is that an average situation is set to 1.0.


• Keith Woolner took Tango's concept of Leveraged Index and incorporated his own math. His approach is to calculate the difference a single run scored would make in WP and define that as the measure.

Blue Jays' WPA

Thomas Ayers has posted the WPA totals from yesterday's 4-3 win over the Red Sox at the Batter's Box Interactive Magazine.

Spreadsheet Tips

If you work with the WPA spreadsheet, here are a few tips:

• Don't save the spreadsheet under a name other than WinExp.xls if you want the macros to work. I generally use the spreadsheet as is when logging a game, then save it under a different name when done. Remember, the macros won't work if you save it under a different name.


• Make sure your Macro security is set to "Medium." Otherwise, they won't work.


• The macros don't seem to work on a Mac. Don't know why.

• Play description
• Offensive Player involved.
• Percent of play to be allocated to pitcher
• The name of the fielder, if any has WPA credited to him.

WPA Central

There seems to be a lot of interest in Win Probability Added these days. I have a Win Probability Added spreadsheet that Jon Daly and I built based on the previous work of Tangotiger, Keith Woolner and Doug Drinen, and I've used it to track several games at The Hardball Times.

I'm happy to share the spreadsheet with others, and several people have gotten copies. The thing is, WPA is an evolving approach, and the spreadsheet has evolved too. Plus, my e-mail conversations with other folks using the worksheet have become a bit disjointed. So... I've decided to use this blog as a central gathering place for WPA devotees using the spreadsheet. For this summer, we'll limit our Baseball Graphs posts to WPA, its uses, applications and implications.

In related news, I've come to an agreement with the RedsZone Forum to track all of the Reds' games this summer with the spreadsheet. I had wanted to track a specific team all year long with WPA, so this agreement has given me some focus. I'll be posting WPA results on their site each day, hopefully within twenty-four hours of the game's end.

Plus, I'll be writing a weekly column for The Hardball Times called "Game in Review," in which I'll use WPA to track the ins and outs of each one.

So that's the story. If you want a copy of the spreadsheet, Version 1.2 is available at ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa. Keep in mind that I keep finding bugs and ways to improve the interface. Plus, there are lots of unresolved issues regarding how to score certain types of plays. So, if you're interested in WPA, please drop by often and post any questions or issues.

Foulke's Appearances

There has been an ongoing discussion at Baseball Think Factory about Keith Foulke's usage last year. Foulke did have a strange record, in that many of his appearances were in low-intensity situations. This is unusual for a closer.

Two of the issues raised were whether Foulke's low-intensity appearances occurred primarily in the beginning of the season, and do high-intensity appearances tend to be "clumped" together.

The best way I know to show that is with a graph. So here 'tis:



The lines/bars represent each of Foulke's individual appearances, and the superimposed line is a ten-game rolling average. P is a measure of the importance of a reliever's appearance.

As you can see, there is some natural clumping of high-intensity situations, and he was used a lot in low-intensity situations from mid-April toward the end of May.

For reference, the top closers averaged around 0.09 in average P Value over the full season, and Foulke came in at 0.067.

You can find a full definition of the "P Value" in my Hardball Times article. More bullpen information like this is available in The Hardball Times Bullpen Book.