The Baseball Graphs Blog

Volunteers, Anyone?

For folks who have used the Win Probability spreadsheet to track a game, I'm looking for volunteers to help track the Division and World Series. Anyone willing to volunteer for a game or two?

WPA for bunting situations

This was posted lower in the message board, but it's worth a special look. Here's a great look at how Win Probability Added is a better way to look at the bunt situation than your basic Runs Matrix.

Sorry about not posting lately. Been busy at The Hardball Times, where we're now working on the end-of-the-season Annual.

All-Star Artwork

If you're interested in MLB's All-Star Scoreboard Challenge, or even if you're not inclined to participate in such things, you will certainly enjoy this set of All-Star graphs.

Nats' Win Value

I should have mentioned this before. The guys who run the Nats Blog have been keeping a running total of their own win system, which they call Win Value. It's similar to Win Probability, though some of the math is different.

Still, what's exciting is that they've been keeping track of every game, and here are the individual player totals for the first half of the Nationals' season. Considering the great year the Nationals have had so far, this should be generating a lot of interest.

Win Probability in a Softball League

Benedict has been posting Win Probability graphs for his softball league! (click on the PDF link). I love it.

Lookout Landing Win Expectancy

I didn't realize this, but Lookout Landing has been tracking the "Win Expectancy" of each Mariner game. Unfortunately, they're using Chris Shea's Win Expectancy data instead of the Baseball Graphs spreadsheet, so their underlying Win Expectancy calculations are slightly off.

Still, it's great to see the use of Win Probability on the web, and it's also great to see graphs.

WPA Posts

Here are a couple of very good WPA bullpen posts:

• Thomas has a tremendous, detailed review of the Blue Jays' April that might serve as a template for future reports.
• Completely independent of anything we've done here, John has developed a great site that tracks the Atlanta Braves' bullpen WPA. This is another great example of how WPA could potentially be used on an ongoing basis.

Another Third Coast WPA Report

Awrr is on a roll with this review of yesterday's Pirates/Astros game. He particularly does a nice job using "P" to critique Garner's relief moves.